Exactly how this resolves
- Measurement
- CPI-U all items less food and energy, unadjusted 12-month % change for 2026-12 as first published by BLS
- Window
- 2026-12-01 05:00 UTC → 2027-01-13 13:30 UTC (America/New_York)
- Resolution source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI news release) — BLS CPI news release for 2026-12: Table A, All items less food and energy, unadjusted 12-month change
- Independent check
- BLS release first paragraph (headline); Kalshi expiration value
- Rounding
- One decimal place as published by BLS
- Exceptions
- Kalshi closes the market shortly before the scheduled 08:30 ET release · A data delay from a federal government shutdown extends expiration to the sooner of the release or six months after the shutdown ends · Reference month not in the CPI V1 calendar: observation_end is the market close + 5 min until the BLS schedule is added
- Normalization
- NORMALIZED · contract-norm/1
Venue rule (example outcome):
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
