PBE CRYPTO NOWCASTResearch · Shadow
BTC 15-Minute Nowcast
Will BTC finish this 15-minute window at or above its opening reference? PBE's own probability, raced against the Kalshi price for the same contract. Every point on the chart is a stored observation.
Connecting
Window closes in--:--
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PBE · P(up)—waiting for first forecast
Kalshi——
Model vs Kalshi——
Polymarket—benchmark only · never compared
BTC vs open——
PBE modelKalshi (same contract)Polymarket (different price index)
Steps hold each stored value until the next one; lines break where no observation was stored for 2.5 min. Hover, tap or use ← → to inspect.
Observations in this window (table)
EVIDENCE
—Why the model is here
Prediction-market prices are benchmarks only and never enter the PBE model.
TRACK RECORD
Final pre-resolution scoring
Research-stage record. No skill claim is made below the frozen promotion threshold.
ROBINHOOD LIVE MARKET
Crypto price board
Fast-scanning API-tradable market state. Search the Robinhood universe and jump straight to execution.
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EXECUTION LAB
Loading universe…How trading friction changes with size
Fee-adjusted Robinhood estimates at four USD sizes.