Weather & climate
Research models- Daily rain and high-temperature contracts for named NWS climate stations
- Forecast guidance, live station observations and climate-day rules
- Resolved against the NWS Daily Climate Report for the exact station
WHAT IS PROPBETEDGE PREDICTIONS?
Predictive intelligence, built as a living ledger.
PropBetEdge Predictions is where we monitor live markets, study historical outcomes, test proprietary algorithms and build new data products that show where prediction markets and evidence disagree.
- Contract
- Exact rules, station, window and threshold
- Model
- Family and version, e.g. pbe-weather-precip 1.1.0
- Data cutoff
- Only inputs available before this time
- Feature snapshot
- Hashed inputs, market data excluded
- Market at publish
- Stored beside the forecast as a benchmark
- Scoring role
- FIRST_PUBLISHED · T-24H · FINAL
- Resolution
- Venue settlement + independent official value
Written once. Never edited. Scored after the outcome.
One system, from market tick to scored result
Monitors live markets
Event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket are captured continuously, with their exact rules, close times and prices.
Keeps the historical record
Every observation is stored with the moment it became available, so the past can be replayed exactly as it looked.
Runs proprietary models
Specialist models turn official and public data into probabilities. Market prices never enter them.
Maintains an ongoing ledger
Forecasts are append-only: each run adds a new snapshot with its model version, inputs and data cutoff.
Studies markets against outcomes
Prices, model forecasts and official results are compared over time to see where each was right, early or wrong.
Builds new datasets
The ledger becomes structured, point-in-time data that powers new models and intelligence products.
Coverage across real-world events, crypto and markets
Each category shows where it stands today. A category earns a published model only after its settlement source is verified and its backtests pass. Live states for every model family are on the research board.
Rates & macro
Research + shadow- Treasury yield-path contracts, scored against the official par yield curve
- Federal Reserve decisions, modeled in shadow before any publication
- Inflation and labor releases in private research until they pass validation
Crypto
Live nowcast- A 15-minute Bitcoin probability nowcast beside the live 15-minute contracts
- Momentum, volatility and trend regimes across major crypto markets
- Gaps shown only when the contract, window and data are genuinely comparable
Equities & market structure
Forward paper record- Signal 10: a pre-registered ranking model running a live $10k paper portfolio
- Every trade written to a hash-chained ledger, never edited after the fact
- Market structure and macro analysis in Markets AI
Sports prediction markets
Across the network- Game and player markets are covered by the ten PropBetEdge sport platforms
- Compare lines up venue prices for the same outcome side by side
- The same record-keeping discipline: locked picks, versions and public results
Emerging categories
Monitoring- Business, space, public health and energy contracts are tracked today
- Market shown, no model, until a specialist model passes its gates
- New categories are added as their settlement sources are verified
A proprietary data and intelligence engine, built in the open
A public research surface
The methodology, the model registry and the scored track record are public. Anyone can see what we forecast, how it was made and how it turned out. Insights explains the moves as they happen.
An operating layer for new data
Behind the pages, the same engine produces point-in-time datasets, model generations and market intelligence that feed the wider PropBetEdge network, from the sport platforms to Compare.
How the pieces fit together
- 01Data ingestionOfficial, public and venue data, each stamped with when it became available
- 02Historical recordsPoint-in-time archives that replay the past exactly as it looked
- 03Proprietary algorithmsSpecialist models per category; market prices never enter them
- 04Ongoing ledgerAppend-only forecast snapshots with versions, inputs and cutoffs
- 05EvaluationBrier score and log loss against the market and the official result
- 06New datasetsStructured, scored history that trains the next model generation
- 07Intelligence productsThe desk, Insights, Signal 10, Crypto Nowcast and what comes next
Standards we hold every forecast to
Immutable record
Nothing is rewritten. A new run is a new snapshot, and the scoring snapshots are fixed by rule before the outcome is known.
Ongoing performance tracking
Wins, misses and scores stay public in the track record, including the forecasts that went wrong.
Evidence-based modeling
Every forecast links to its inputs, its data cutoff and the exact resolution rules it was built for.
Proprietary workflows
Contract normalization, point-in-time data and leakage guards are built in-house and enforced in code and in the database.
Cross-market intelligence
Weather, rates, macro, crypto and equities share one ledger, one scoring method and one standard of evidence.
Expanding coverage
Categories enter as monitoring and earn a model only after their settlement source and backtests check out.
06 · IMPORTANT
Research and intelligence, not advice
- PropBetEdge Predictions publishes research-stage probabilities and market intelligence. Nothing here is financial or betting advice.
- Market prices are a reference benchmark. They are stored beside each forecast and never enter a PropBetEdge model.
- Models evolve. Each change is a new version with its own record; earlier forecasts keep the version that made them.
- Coverage will expand. New categories start in monitoring and are labeled with their state everywhere they appear.
Immutable forecastsEvidence & sourcesScoring methodologyModel states & limitationsTrack record
PropBetEdge Predictions is included with PropBetEdge All Access — 10 sports + Predictions + Compare for $29/month.