Model families

States: MONITORING (market shown, no model) → BACKTESTING → SHADOW (forecasts stored, never published) → RESEARCH (published, not validated) → VALIDATED → OFFICIAL. Skill metrics appear only once a family has enough resolved forecasts; until then the sample is reported as insufficient.

Unsupported and held contracts

Contracts that are not modeled, with the exact machine-readable reason (live from the engine).