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Miami — photograph (Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 6, 2026: PBE moves “91° to 92°” up to 32% from 13%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 5 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Marc Averette · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

13%32%

91° to 92° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+19 pts
Market at capture34%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 6, 2026?

91° to 92° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday22%−10 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KMIA: high so far 90.0°F · latest 82.4°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 6 22:20Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 6 17:20Z PBE 48% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 17:20Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 6 19:10Z PBE 26% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 18:30Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “91° to 92°” from 13% to 32% (+19 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 5 11:00Z → Oct 5 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 5 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 5 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 5 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 5 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “91° to 92°” from 13% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 89°F to 90°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 89°F to 90°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time23h17h—
GFS MOS forecast high89°F90°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high89°F90°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 5 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“91° to 92°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5 14:00ZOct 5 15:30ZOct 5 17:00Z13%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 13% · Oct 5 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 5 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 5 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 5 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.013
Oct 5 14:06ZKalshi mid23
Oct 5 14:08ZKalshi mid31
Oct 5 14:10ZKalshi mid31
Oct 5 14:12ZKalshi mid32
Oct 5 14:16ZKalshi mid30
Oct 5 14:28ZKalshi mid30
Oct 5 14:46ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 15:01ZKalshi mid30
Oct 5 15:02ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 15:04ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 15:06ZKalshi mid29
Oct 5 15:12ZKalshi mid29
Oct 5 15:14ZKalshi mid29
Oct 5 15:16ZKalshi mid31
Oct 5 15:18ZKalshi mid32
Oct 5 15:24ZKalshi mid32
Oct 5 15:26ZKalshi mid32
Oct 5 15:40ZKalshi mid32
Oct 5 15:56ZKalshi mid27
Oct 5 15:58ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 16:00ZKalshi mid28
Oct 5 16:16ZKalshi mid30
Oct 5 16:18ZKalshi mid31
Oct 5 16:20ZKalshi mid31
Oct 5 16:22ZKalshi mid32
Oct 5 16:28ZKalshi mid32
Oct 5 16:30ZKalshi mid33
Oct 5 16:32ZKalshi mid34
Oct 5 16:38ZKalshi mid34
Oct 5 16:40ZKalshi mid34
Oct 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 5 17:00ZKalshi mid34

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 5 14:00ZOct 5 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 5 11:00ZOct 5 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T12Z
PBE13%32%
Market at capture—34%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

91° to 92°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
a0647832-c424-42c8-bf04-bb140ba81fd7
Compared with
cb5ddcdf-b6e8-4b70-b3fd-9ea9c465d11a
Captured
Oct 5 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 5 17:00Z
Market observation
34% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMIA (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMIA (WFO MFL); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012839
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-06, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-5)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for Oct 6, 2026, is between 91-92° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.