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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Where will it rain on Oct 10, 2026: PBE moves “New Orleans” up to 58% from 36%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 11:01 UTC and 17:01 UTC on Oct 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 9 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: thepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

36%58%

New Orleans · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 11:01 UTC → 17:01 UTC

Move+22 pts
Market at capture11%
Inputs changed4primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Where will it rain on Oct 10, 2026?

New Orleans · PRE-WINDOW

PBE38%−20 pts since publication
Kalshi19%−11 pts since publication
Gap+19

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 23:01Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 9 23:01Z PBE 38% pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 23:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “New Orleans” from 36% to 58% (+22 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 9 11:00Z → Oct 9 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 30% to 11%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 9 11:01Z (data cutoff Oct 9 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 9 17:01Z (cutoff Oct 9 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “New Orleans” from 36% to 58%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 19% to 48%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 45% to 46%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 25% to 52%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 52% to 54%.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain19%48%yes
National Blend max 6-h chance of rain45%46%yes
GFS MOS chance of rain in the window25%52%yes
National Blend chance of rain in the window52%54%yes
Guidance lead time24h18h—
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 9 17:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“New Orleans”: pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 9 09:12ZOct 9 13:07ZOct 9 17:01Z36%58%PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 31% · Oct 9 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Oct 9 11:01ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots 58% · Oct 9 17:01Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 9 17:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 9 09:12ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.031
Oct 9 09:14ZKalshi mid6
Oct 9 09:16ZKalshi mid13
Oct 9 09:16ZKalshi mid16
Oct 9 09:18ZKalshi mid19
Oct 9 09:18ZKalshi mid23
Oct 9 09:20ZKalshi mid27
Oct 9 09:22ZKalshi mid31
Oct 9 09:22ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 09:24ZKalshi mid25
Oct 9 09:26ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 09:28ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 09:28ZKalshi mid28
Oct 9 09:30ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 09:30ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 09:32ZKalshi mid35
Oct 9 09:32ZKalshi mid35
Oct 9 09:34ZKalshi mid35
Oct 9 09:34ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 09:36ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 09:36ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 09:40ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 09:40ZKalshi mid35
Oct 9 09:44ZKalshi mid35
Oct 9 09:46ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 09:50ZKalshi mid34
Oct 9 10:00ZKalshi mid31
Oct 9 10:24ZKalshi mid40
Oct 9 10:26ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 10:26ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 10:28ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 11:01ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.036
Oct 9 11:01ZKalshi mid30
Oct 9 11:02ZKalshi mid31
Oct 9 11:10ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 11:14ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 11:32ZKalshi mid32
Oct 9 11:34ZKalshi mid31
Oct 9 11:36ZKalshi mid31
Oct 9 12:01ZKalshi mid31
Oct 9 12:11ZKalshi mid28
Oct 9 13:01ZKalshi mid25
Oct 9 13:03ZKalshi mid25
Oct 9 13:05ZKalshi mid23
Oct 9 13:11ZKalshi mid23
Oct 9 13:13ZKalshi mid23
Oct 9 13:17ZKalshi mid22
Oct 9 13:21ZKalshi mid21
Oct 9 13:23ZKalshi mid21
Oct 9 13:31ZKalshi mid20
Oct 9 13:32ZKalshi mid21
Oct 9 13:41ZKalshi mid17
Oct 9 13:43ZKalshi mid17
Oct 9 14:02ZKalshi mid17
Oct 9 14:03ZKalshi mid14
Oct 9 14:05ZKalshi mid14
Oct 9 14:15ZKalshi mid14
Oct 9 14:27ZKalshi mid14
Oct 9 14:47ZKalshi mid13
Oct 9 15:02ZKalshi mid13
Oct 9 15:07ZKalshi mid13
Oct 9 15:27ZKalshi mid13
Oct 9 15:35ZKalshi mid13
Oct 9 15:37ZKalshi mid12
Oct 9 15:45ZKalshi mid12
Oct 9 16:01ZKalshi mid12
Oct 9 16:47ZKalshi mid11
Oct 9 17:01ZPBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.058
Oct 9 17:01ZKalshi mid11

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 30% to 11%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 9 11:01ZOct 9 17:01Z
Data cutoffOct 9 11:00ZOct 9 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-09T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-09T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-09T12Z
PBE36%58%
Market at capture30%11%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

New Orleans
Model
pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
409d7732-e206-4e17-816c-ff2753d466fd
Compared with
60294fa0-d533-434e-9ac3-16a17ed958a9
Captured
Oct 9 17:01Z
Data cutoff
Oct 9 17:00Z
Market observation
11% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMSY (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMSY (WFO LIX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012916
Measurement
Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
Exceptions
Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-11T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
If the total precipitation at CLIMSY in New Orleans in Oct 10, 2026 is strictly greater than 0 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
  • IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
  • Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112

Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.