Where will it rain on Oct 4, 2026: San Antonio — it did not happen. How PBE scored.
San Antonio: NO. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 58% against a 25% market. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.
Data illustration generated by PropBetEdge Predictions from this story’s evidence
Resolved Oct 5 12:00Z · verified against NWS CLI CLISAT product 202610050630-KEWX-CDUS44-CLISAT
Where will it rain on Oct 4, 2026?
San Antonio · RESOLVED
Quick read
- Result: San Antonio: NO; official check 0 in agrees with the venue.
- PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 58%; market at that moment 25%.
- Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.042, market 0.061 (n=30).
- Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.
What happened
Where will it rain on Oct 4, 2026 resolved with San Antonio: NO. The venue settled at Oct 5 12:00Z (expiration value 0.00); PropBetEdge's independent check — NWS CLI CLISAT product 202610050630-KEWX-CDUS44-CLISAT — recorded 0 in, which agrees with the settlement (source).
What PBE said before it happened
The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.
| Outcome | Result | First published | T−24 h | Final pre-resolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Atlanta | YES | 98% (mkt 95%) | — | 98% (mkt 96%) |
| Austin | YES | 47% (mkt 45%) | — | 77% (mkt 58%) |
| Boston | NO | 32% (mkt 32%) | — | 52% (mkt 28%) |
| Chicago | NO | 4% (mkt 3%) | — | 2% (mkt 3%) |
| College Station | YES | 83% (mkt 52%) | — | 81% (mkt 75%) |
| Columbus | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Dallas | YES | 66% (mkt 45%) | — | 78% (mkt 63%) |
| Washington DC | YES | 86% (mkt 79%) | — | 76% (mkt 77%) |
| Denver | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Newark | YES | 74% (mkt 55%) | — | 75% (mkt 58%) |
| Houston | YES | 87% (mkt 57%) | — | 95% (mkt 79%) |
| Los Angeles | NO | 2% | — | 2% |
| Lexington | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Las Vegas | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% |
| Miami | NO | 21% (mkt 19%) | — | 23% (mkt 19%) |
| Minneapolis | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Milwaukee | NO | 11% (mkt 13%) | — | 5% (mkt 16%) |
| New Orleans | YES | 98% (mkt 95%) | — | 98% (mkt 99%) |
| New York City | YES | 73% (mkt 64%) | — | 75% (mkt 64%) |
| Oklahoma City | NO | 3% (mkt 2%) | — | 6% (mkt 2%) |
| Philadelphia | YES | 82% (mkt 68%) | — | 79% (mkt 66%) |
| Phoenix | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% |
| Pittsburgh | NO | 5% (mkt 4%) | — | 2% (mkt 4%) |
| Providence | YES | 48% (mkt 47%) | — | 62% (mkt 48%) |
| San Antonio | NO | 36% (mkt 24%) | — | 58% (mkt 25%) |
| Seattle | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| San Francisco | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% |
| Springfield | NO | 2% (mkt 2%) | — | 2% (mkt 2%) |
| Trenton | YES | 77% (mkt 56%) | — | 74% (mkt 60%) |
How it scored
Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 30 contracts was 0.042 against 0.061 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.
| Checkpoint | Method | PBE | Market | n (PBE) | n (market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First published | Brier | 0.042 | 0.079 | 30 | 28 |
| First published | Log loss | 0.168 | 0.257 | 30 | 28 |
| Final pre-resolution | Brier | 0.042 | 0.061 | 30 | 25 |
| Final pre-resolution | Log loss | 0.164 | 0.227 | 30 | 25 |
This event adds 30 resolved contracts to the model's live record (30 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
| Outcome | Model | Snapshot | Compared with | Captured | Data cutoff | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | a4c3311d-2a55-4e08-b1e4-ae4f73807550 | 79b32c38-4cee-4f21-8f1c-20b37465aba2 | Oct 4 05:00Z | Oct 4 05:00Z | — |
| Atlanta | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | ccbe374b-45f2-45ee-b72a-c7d3be9facb9 | 9e6bcf61-51f8-4d4f-9fd2-1bbb6cdd623b | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 96% |
| Austin | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 3f2d8fb8-5615-4fdb-9114-a91cd3e9936f | 77b3371f-4d01-4cac-8a1c-821b2280bea6 | Oct 4 05:00Z | Oct 4 05:00Z | 58% |
| Boston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 8aaefaa1-6b97-4ff4-a953-5f84c002d200 | 0228c5ed-987e-458d-8e9c-eecde2bae1ec | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 28% |
| Chicago | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 59a0306b-6eca-4732-b4cd-5a316278141e | 3de37974-0fa7-4761-a526-5ba3e9079111 | Oct 4 05:00Z | Oct 4 05:00Z | 3% |
| College Station | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 822fd82c-e41d-443a-9092-5af1443c9fd3 | 91230fbe-1f01-4a1d-b449-b36ec3264379 | Oct 4 05:00Z | Oct 4 05:00Z | 75% |
| Columbus | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 7ee015ae-7336-4a63-967e-16616b08c6b2 | bf41a13f-6e40-4684-8dd2-34b113927837 | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 2% |
| Dallas | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 707294bd-22cb-4932-9e66-bd8ca009231d | 224de010-b66a-48a1-b481-4b635c0b4730 | Oct 4 05:00Z | Oct 4 05:00Z | 63% |
| Washington DC | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | f919eaaa-2bc6-4074-b9d4-642124c8dca1 | 50d2b5f8-311a-4404-b585-a06ac5df8678 | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 77% |
| Denver | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | e1551757-bd2c-4cc3-8ba4-4c1c31ed5fae | b7df8c85-2972-413b-8c0e-082cf5835891 | Oct 4 05:00Z | Oct 4 05:00Z | 2% |
| Newark | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 75765187-34a9-4c7f-9d50-59a849b5d93b | c672e0b3-c1a2-48c4-90c7-c59054a3f284 | Oct 3 23:00Z | Oct 3 23:00Z | 58% |
| Houston | pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH | 662b0709-edc2-4e7a-a67e-89589bb3e091 | c3d4a8bb-fd8c-4816-a93e-28eea4c6034b | Oct 4 05:00Z | Oct 4 05:00Z | 79% |
Source families: NWS CLI CLIABQ product 202610050918-KABQ-CDUS45-CLIABQ · NWS CLI CLIATL product 202610050819-KFFC-CDUS42-CLIATL · NWS CLI CLIAUS product 202610050630-KEWX-CDUS44-CLIAUS · NWS CLI CLIBOS product 202610050534-KBOX-CDUS41-CLIBOS · NWS CLI CLIORD product 202610050646-KLOT-CDUS43-CLIORD · NWS CLI CLICLL product 202610050707-KHGX-CDUS44-CLICLL · NWS CLI CLICMH product 202610050534-KILN-CDUS41-CLICMH · NWS CLI CLIDFW product 202610050651-KFWD-CDUS44-CLIDFW · NWS CLI CLIDCA product 202610050621-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIDCA · NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202610050739-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN · NWS CLI CLIEWR product 202610050621-KOKX-CDUS41-CLIEWR · NWS CLI CLIHOU product 202610050707-KHGX-CDUS44-CLIHOU. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLISAT (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLISAT (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012921
- Measurement
- Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-04, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
- Rounding
- Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
- Exceptions
- Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-05T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
- Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
- IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
- Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112
Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.