Where will it rain on Oct 8, 2026: PBE moves “New Orleans” down to 11% from 22%
New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:01 UTC on Oct 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.
Photo: thepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
New Orleans · pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:01 UTC
Where will it rain on Oct 8, 2026?
New Orleans · RESOLVED
- UPDATE · Oct 9 02:04Z PBE 1% pbe-weather-precip-intraday@2.0.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 01:24Z
Quick read
- pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 moved “New Orleans” from 22% to 11% (−11 pts).
- Later data cutoff: Oct 7 17:00Z → Oct 7 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
- Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain, National Blend max 6-h chance of rain, GFS MOS chance of rain in the window, National Blend chance of rain in the window.
- The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 8%.
What changed in the inputs
Between the snapshot captured at Oct 7 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 7 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 7 23:01Z (cutoff Oct 7 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 — moved “New Orleans” from 22% to 11%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain from 40% to 14%; National Blend max 6-h chance of rain from 6% to 7%; GFS MOS chance of rain in the window from 50% to 26%; National Blend chance of rain in the window from 13% to 12%.
| Input | Before | After | Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| GFS MOS max 6-h chance of rain | 40% | 14% | yes |
| National Blend max 6-h chance of rain | 6% | 7% | yes |
| GFS MOS chance of rain in the window | 50% | 26% | yes |
| National Blend chance of rain in the window | 13% | 12% | yes |
| Guidance lead time | 18h | 12h | — |
This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.
The forecast path
Data table
| Time (UTC) | Source | Value % |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 11:21Z | PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 | 20 |
| Oct 7 11:21Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 11:25Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 12:02Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 12:47Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 13:00Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 13:06Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 14:00Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 14:04Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 15:00Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 15:26Z | Kalshi mid | 9 |
| Oct 7 15:28Z | Kalshi mid | 9 |
| Oct 7 15:30Z | Kalshi mid | 9 |
| Oct 7 16:00Z | Kalshi mid | 9 |
| Oct 7 16:36Z | Kalshi mid | 9 |
| Oct 7 16:56Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 7 17:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 | 22 |
| Oct 7 17:00Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 7 17:02Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 7 17:04Z | Kalshi mid | 3 |
| Oct 7 17:06Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Oct 7 17:20Z | Kalshi mid | 4 |
| Oct 7 18:00Z | Kalshi mid | 4 |
| Oct 7 18:08Z | Kalshi mid | 4 |
| Oct 7 18:14Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 7 18:30Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 7 18:32Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 7 19:00Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 7 19:42Z | Kalshi mid | 5 |
| Oct 7 19:50Z | Kalshi mid | 7 |
| Oct 7 20:00Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 7 20:06Z | Kalshi mid | 7 |
| Oct 7 20:10Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 7 20:18Z | Kalshi mid | 7 |
| Oct 7 20:42Z | Kalshi mid | 7 |
| Oct 7 20:56Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 7 21:00Z | Kalshi mid | 6 |
| Oct 7 21:08Z | Kalshi mid | 7 |
| Oct 7 21:30Z | Kalshi mid | 9 |
| Oct 7 21:36Z | Kalshi mid | 9 |
| Oct 7 21:50Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 21:54Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 22:00Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 22:13Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 22:21Z | Kalshi mid | 9 |
| Oct 7 22:27Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 22:55Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
| Oct 7 23:01Z | PBE pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 | 11 |
| Oct 7 23:01Z | Kalshi mid | 8 |
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 8%.
The two snapshots
| Earlier | Later | |
|---|---|---|
| Captured | Oct 7 17:00Z | Oct 7 23:01Z |
| Data cutoff | Oct 7 17:00Z | Oct 7 23:00Z |
| Guidance runs | NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-07T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-07T12Z | NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-07T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-07T18Z |
| PBE | 22% | 11% |
| Market at capture | 6% | 8% |
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
- Model
- pbe-weather-precip@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
- Snapshot
- c789d39b-8e3d-45ca-a6d5-f61be0db87dd
- Compared with
- 12cd8328-0737-49f1-b6e7-f9bc8a71029d
- Captured
- Oct 7 23:01Z
- Data cutoff
- Oct 7 23:00Z
- Market observation
- 8% · captured with the snapshot
- Source families
- NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily precipitation for CLIMSY (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMSY (WFO LIX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00012916
- Measurement
- Total liquid-equivalent precipitation for the climate day 2026-10-08, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
- Rounding
- Hundredths of an inch; trace (T) counts as 0.00
- Exceptions
- Missing daily precipitation value counts as 0 inches (resolves NO) · Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price · Venue event strike_date (2026-10-09T03:59:59Z) is not the climate-day boundary; the reported daily value governs
- Forecasts are published only before the climate day opens (no intraday observations in v1)
- IEM NBM archive gaps -> GFS-only fallback tier
- Settles on The Weather Company values; verified against NWS CLI 112/112
Weather · measurable rain — inputs: NWS GFS MOS + National Blend of Models 6-h PoP for the exact climate day, 1991-2020 station climatology (ACIS). This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.