The world has a price.
We measure the probability.
PBE builds its own forecast for real-world events, from weather and Treasury yields to economic releases, and sets it against the live prediction-market price for the exact same contract. Every forecast is stored before the outcome and scored after it.
Included with PropBetEdge All Access · $29/month
What the markets are pricing right now
One live contract per desk. Event prices come from Kalshi; the BTC tile is the separate 15-minute crypto nowcast.
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From the Intelligence Desk.
Model vs. reality
Three separate records with three separate denominators: settled temperature events, research calls frozen before resolution, and every scored contract. Never blended, losses included, no profit claims.
Three ways into the engine
Weather, rates, macro, business, space, public health and energy, with filters, evidence and the full source ledger.
Open the desk → Crypto NowcastBTC 15-minute probability and execution economicsA live nowcast for each 15-minute window against Kalshi and Polymarket, with read-only Robinhood market data. No trading.
Open Crypto → Markets AIThe research terminal for stocks and macroA separate analysis product for equities and macro themes, distinct from the event-contract engine.
Research terminalOpen Markets AI →Why PBE
The market price never enters the model. It is stored beside the forecast as a benchmark only.
Every forecast records the exact station, release or series it used and when that data was available.
Forecasts are append-only and scored after resolution with Brier and log loss. No retroactive rewrites.
All Access unlocks the PBE forecast, the model-vs-market gap, the evidence and every settled result across Predictions and the PropBetEdge network.
Get All Access · $29/monthMethodology →You have All Access. The full desk, evidence and results are open to you.
Open the Intelligence DeskMethodology →