Exactly how this resolves
- Measurement
- CPI-U all items, seasonally adjusted 1-month % change for 2026-12 as first published by BLS
- Window
- 2026-12-01 05:00 UTC → 2027-01-13 13:30 UTC (America/New_York)
- Resolution source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI news release) — BLS CPI news release for 2026-12: Table A, All items, seasonally adjusted change from the previous month
- Independent check
- BLS release first paragraph (headline); Kalshi expiration value
- Rounding
- One decimal place as published by BLS
- Exceptions
- Kalshi closes the market shortly before the scheduled 08:30 ET release · A data delay from a federal government shutdown extends expiration to the sooner of the release or six months after the shutdown ends · Reference month not in the CPI V1 calendar: observation_end is the market close + 5 min until the BLS schedule is added
- Normalization
- NORMALIZED · contract-norm/1
Venue rule (example outcome):
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% in December 2026, as reported to one decimal place, then the market resolves to Yes.
