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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 1, 2026: PBE moves “87° to 88°” up to 32% from 22%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 31. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 31 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

22%32%

87° to 88° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture7%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 1, 2026?

87° to 88° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE32%0 pts since publication
Kalshi8%+2 pts since publication
Gap+24

RESEARCH PBE Oct 31 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “87° to 88°” from 22% to 32% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 31 11:00Z → Oct 31 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 7%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 31 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 31 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 31 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 31 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “87° to 88°” from 22% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 2°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 87°F to 89°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 85°F to 86°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
National Blend spread3°F2°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high87°F89°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high85°F86°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 31 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“87° to 88°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 31 14:02ZOct 31 15:31ZOct 31 17:00Z22%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 31 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 31 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 31 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 31 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 31 14:02ZKalshi mid6
Oct 31 14:04ZKalshi mid7
Oct 31 14:06ZKalshi mid4
Oct 31 14:08ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 14:12ZKalshi mid6
Oct 31 14:14ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 14:32ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 15:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 15:06ZKalshi mid4
Oct 31 15:08ZKalshi mid3
Oct 31 15:36ZKalshi mid3
Oct 31 15:48ZKalshi mid3
Oct 31 16:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 31 16:04ZKalshi mid3
Oct 31 16:06ZKalshi mid3
Oct 31 16:42ZKalshi mid5
Oct 31 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 31 17:00ZKalshi mid7

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 7%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 31 14:02ZOct 31 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 31 11:00ZOct 31 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T12Z
PBE22%32%
Market at capture6%7%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

87° to 88°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
08c222c7-7288-4843-9b59-6a07e1b03549
Compared with
c0a0f417-0e2d-45bf-8724-fac159e46423
Captured
Oct 31 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 31 17:00Z
Market observation
7% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-01, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 1, 2026, is between 87-88° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.