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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 10, 2026: PBE moves “72° to 73°” up to 37% from 20%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 9 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

20%37%

72° to 73° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+17 pts
Market at capture22%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 10, 2026?

72° to 73° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE37%0 pts since publication
Kalshi22%+4 pts since publication
Gap+15

RESEARCH PBE Nov 9 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “72° to 73°” from 20% to 37% (+17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 9 17:00Z → Nov 9 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 18% to 22%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 9 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 9 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 9 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “72° to 73°” from 20% to 37%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 71°F to 70°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 74°F to 72°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time18h12h—
GFS MOS forecast high71°F70°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high74°F72°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 9 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“72° to 73°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 9 15:02ZNov 9 19:01ZNov 9 23:00Z20%37%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 9 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 9 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 9 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 9 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Nov 9 15:02ZKalshi mid14
Nov 9 15:04ZKalshi mid15
Nov 9 15:08ZKalshi mid13
Nov 9 15:12ZKalshi mid14
Nov 9 16:00ZKalshi mid14
Nov 9 16:06ZKalshi mid14
Nov 9 16:14ZKalshi mid14
Nov 9 16:18ZKalshi mid14
Nov 9 16:26ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Nov 9 17:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 17:06ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 17:54ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 17:56ZKalshi mid19
Nov 9 18:00ZKalshi mid19
Nov 9 18:08ZKalshi mid19
Nov 9 18:18ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 18:22ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 18:58ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 19:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 19:06ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 19:40ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 19:46ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 20:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 20:46ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 21:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 21:46ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 21:52ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 22:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 22:06ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 22:08ZKalshi mid21
Nov 9 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 9 23:00ZKalshi mid22

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 18% to 22%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 9 17:00ZNov 9 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 9 17:00ZNov 9 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T18Z
PBE20%37%
Market at capture18%22%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

72° to 73°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
5bae1d6f-31ed-41f1-9bb7-1a98b1278e73
Compared with
ad332e45-411f-4d9c-86b4-d00d8c465563
Captured
Nov 9 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 9 23:00Z
Market observation
22% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 10, 2026, is between 72-73° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.