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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 11, 2026: PBE moves “79° to 80°” up to 32% from 22%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 11 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

22%32%

79° to 80° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture10%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 11, 2026?

79° to 80° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday8%−24 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 75.2°F · latest 66.0°F () · DELAYED

RESEARCH PBE Nov 11 22:33Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Nov 11 12:13Z PBE 19% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 11 11:33Z
  2. UPDATE · Nov 11 16:48Z PBE 29% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 11 16:48Z
  3. UPDATE · Nov 11 18:28Z PBE 47% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 11 18:28Z
  4. UPDATE · Nov 11 22:33Z PBE 8% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 11 22:33Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° to 80°” from 22% to 32% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 10 23:00Z → Nov 11 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 14% to 10%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 10 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 10 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 11 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 11 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° to 80°” from 22% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 78°F to 76°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 77°F to 78°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time12h6h—
GFS MOS forecast high78°F76°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high77°F78°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 11 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° to 80°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 10 15:02ZNov 10 22:01ZNov 11 05:00Z22%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 10 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 10 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 10 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 11 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 11 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 10 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Nov 10 15:02ZKalshi mid20
Nov 10 15:04ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 15:06ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 15:08ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 15:12ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 15:14ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 15:18ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 15:54ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 15:56ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 16:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 16:02ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 16:04ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 16:06ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 16:14ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 16:18ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 16:36ZKalshi mid18
Nov 10 16:38ZKalshi mid19
Nov 10 16:46ZKalshi mid19
Nov 10 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Nov 10 17:00ZKalshi mid19
Nov 10 17:22ZKalshi mid19
Nov 10 17:48ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 17:50ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 17:54ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 18:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 18:02ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 18:08ZKalshi mid19
Nov 10 18:18ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 18:48ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 18:56ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 19:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 19:08ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 19:18ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 19:20ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 19:50ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 20:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 10 20:02ZKalshi mid26
Nov 10 20:04ZKalshi mid24
Nov 10 20:06ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 20:08ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 20:18ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 20:46ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 21:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 10 21:06ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 21:16ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 21:18ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 21:32ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 22:00ZKalshi mid22
Nov 10 22:04ZKalshi mid21
Nov 10 22:36ZKalshi mid14
Nov 10 22:38ZKalshi mid13
Nov 10 22:42ZKalshi mid14
Nov 10 22:46ZKalshi mid14
Nov 10 22:48ZKalshi mid14
Nov 10 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Nov 10 23:00ZKalshi mid14
Nov 10 23:06ZKalshi mid14
Nov 10 23:16ZKalshi mid14
Nov 10 23:18ZKalshi mid14
Nov 11 00:00ZKalshi mid14
Nov 11 00:18ZKalshi mid14
Nov 11 01:00ZKalshi mid14
Nov 11 01:06ZKalshi mid14
Nov 11 02:00ZKalshi mid14
Nov 11 02:06ZKalshi mid14
Nov 11 03:00ZKalshi mid14
Nov 11 03:08ZKalshi mid12
Nov 11 03:10ZKalshi mid11
Nov 11 03:12ZKalshi mid11
Nov 11 03:16ZKalshi mid11
Nov 11 03:22ZKalshi mid11
Nov 11 03:28ZKalshi mid11
Nov 11 04:00ZKalshi mid11
Nov 11 04:02ZKalshi mid11
Nov 11 04:18ZKalshi mid11
Nov 11 04:36ZKalshi mid10
Nov 11 04:46ZKalshi mid10
Nov 11 04:52ZKalshi mid10
Nov 11 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Nov 11 05:00ZKalshi mid10

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 14% to 10%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 10 23:00ZNov 11 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 10 23:00ZNov 11 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-10T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-10T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T00Z
PBE22%32%
Market at capture14%10%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° to 80°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
9ccc8210-7a6f-4193-9798-401dfa848558
Compared with
99e99e34-53ab-4efb-8dc7-34b4a0a9546d
Captured
Nov 11 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 11 05:00Z
Market observation
10% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-11, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 11, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.