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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 12, 2026: PBE moves “79° to 80°” down to 5% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 11 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%5%

79° to 80° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−27 pts
Market at capture47%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 12, 2026?

79° to 80° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE5%0 pts since publication
Kalshi47%−5 pts since publication
Gap−42

RESEARCH PBE Nov 11 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° to 80°” from 32% to 5% (−27 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 11 17:00Z → Nov 11 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 52% to 47%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 11 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 11 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 11 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 11 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° to 80°” from 32% to 5%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 80°F to 79°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 78°F to 75°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time18h12h—
GFS MOS forecast high80°F79°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high78°F75°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 11 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° to 80°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 11 15:02ZNov 11 19:01ZNov 11 23:00Z32%5%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 12% · Nov 11 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 11 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 5% · Nov 11 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 11 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 11 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.012
Nov 11 15:04ZKalshi mid43
Nov 11 15:06ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 15:10ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 15:14ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 15:16ZKalshi mid47
Nov 11 15:20ZKalshi mid47
Nov 11 15:22ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 15:30ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 15:32ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 15:40ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 15:46ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 15:48ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 16:00ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 16:04ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 16:06ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 16:10ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 16:20ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 16:22ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 16:24ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 16:36ZKalshi mid48
Nov 11 16:38ZKalshi mid49
Nov 11 16:46ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Nov 11 17:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 17:06ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 17:08ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 17:18ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 17:22ZKalshi mid54
Nov 11 17:24ZKalshi mid54
Nov 11 17:40ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 17:42ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 17:52ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 17:58ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 18:00ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 18:06ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 18:10ZKalshi mid54
Nov 11 18:18ZKalshi mid55
Nov 11 18:20ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 18:22ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 18:24ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 18:36ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 18:52ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 19:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 19:02ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 19:04ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 19:14ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 19:18ZKalshi mid40
Nov 11 19:28ZKalshi mid39
Nov 11 19:30ZKalshi mid39
Nov 11 19:36ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 19:38ZKalshi mid41
Nov 11 19:42ZKalshi mid40
Nov 11 19:48ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 19:50ZKalshi mid42
Nov 11 19:58ZKalshi mid43
Nov 11 20:00ZKalshi mid43
Nov 11 20:02ZKalshi mid43
Nov 11 20:06ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 20:16ZKalshi mid47
Nov 11 20:36ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 20:42ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 20:46ZKalshi mid51
Nov 11 20:48ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 20:50ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 20:52ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 21:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 21:02ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 21:04ZKalshi mid52
Nov 11 21:10ZKalshi mid53
Nov 11 21:22ZKalshi mid47
Nov 11 21:26ZKalshi mid47
Nov 11 21:34ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 21:46ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 22:00ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 22:10ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 22:12ZKalshi mid46
Nov 11 22:14ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 22:18ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 22:20ZKalshi mid45
Nov 11 22:24ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 22:32ZKalshi mid43
Nov 11 22:34ZKalshi mid44
Nov 11 22:36ZKalshi mid47
Nov 11 22:40ZKalshi mid49
Nov 11 22:46ZKalshi mid49
Nov 11 22:56ZKalshi mid47
Nov 11 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.05
Nov 11 23:00ZKalshi mid47

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 52% to 47%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 11 17:00ZNov 11 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 11 17:00ZNov 11 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-11T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-11T18Z
PBE32%5%
Market at capture52%47%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° to 80°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
ea21bda7-e739-4c28-9e22-dfaa24f93329
Compared with
6f1bea2c-d774-4ff0-b39b-461eaa4f86ac
Captured
Nov 11 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 11 23:00Z
Market observation
47% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-12, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 12, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.