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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 14, 2026: PBE moves “69° to 70°” up to 37% from 20%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 13. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 13 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

20%37%

69° to 70° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+17 pts
Market at capture21%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 14, 2026?

69° to 70° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE37%0 pts since publication
Kalshi35%+5 pts since publication
Gap+2

RESEARCH PBE Nov 14 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “69° to 70°” from 20% to 37% (+17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 13 17:00Z → Nov 13 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 30% to 21%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 13 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 13 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 13 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 13 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “69° to 70°” from 20% to 37%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 69°F to 70°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 71°F to 69°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time18h12h—
GFS MOS forecast high69°F70°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high71°F69°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 13 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“69° to 70°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 13 15:02ZNov 13 19:01ZNov 13 23:00Z20%37%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 13 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Nov 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 37% · Nov 13 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 13 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 13 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 13 15:06ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 15:08ZKalshi mid26
Nov 13 15:10ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 15:14ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 15:16ZKalshi mid31
Nov 13 15:20ZKalshi mid31
Nov 13 15:22ZKalshi mid32
Nov 13 15:26ZKalshi mid32
Nov 13 15:28ZKalshi mid31
Nov 13 15:36ZKalshi mid32
Nov 13 15:48ZKalshi mid32
Nov 13 15:52ZKalshi mid31
Nov 13 16:00ZKalshi mid32
Nov 13 16:18ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 16:22ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 16:34ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Nov 13 17:00ZKalshi mid30
Nov 13 17:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 17:06ZKalshi mid28
Nov 13 17:14ZKalshi mid27
Nov 13 17:24ZKalshi mid23
Nov 13 17:26ZKalshi mid22
Nov 13 17:30ZKalshi mid21
Nov 13 17:32ZKalshi mid21
Nov 13 17:36ZKalshi mid20
Nov 13 17:52ZKalshi mid20
Nov 13 18:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 13 18:52ZKalshi mid20
Nov 13 18:56ZKalshi mid19
Nov 13 19:00ZKalshi mid19
Nov 13 19:12ZKalshi mid20
Nov 13 19:30ZKalshi mid19
Nov 13 19:32ZKalshi mid20
Nov 13 19:38ZKalshi mid20
Nov 13 20:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 13 20:02ZKalshi mid22
Nov 13 20:06ZKalshi mid23
Nov 13 21:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 13 21:06ZKalshi mid18
Nov 13 21:08ZKalshi mid18
Nov 13 21:12ZKalshi mid18
Nov 13 21:52ZKalshi mid19
Nov 13 21:56ZKalshi mid19
Nov 13 22:00ZKalshi mid18
Nov 13 22:06ZKalshi mid18
Nov 13 22:08ZKalshi mid19
Nov 13 22:30ZKalshi mid21
Nov 13 22:32ZKalshi mid21
Nov 13 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.037
Nov 13 23:00ZKalshi mid21

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 30% to 21%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 13 17:00ZNov 13 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 13 17:00ZNov 13 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-13T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-13T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-13T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-13T18Z
PBE20%37%
Market at capture30%21%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

69° to 70°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
5be86c24-824a-4e4b-9feb-6ee170168a05
Compared with
84a47f46-ce48-48c8-9ef7-b83044fc3b88
Captured
Nov 13 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 13 23:00Z
Market observation
21% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-14, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 14, 2026, is between 69-70° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.