WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 15, 2026: PBE moves “63° to 64°” up to 32% from 12%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 14. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published November 14, 2026 at 23:03 UTCModel data as of Nov 14 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

12%32%

63° to 64° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+20 pts

Market at capture6%

Inputs changed3primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 15, 2026?

63° to 64° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday4%−28 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 55.9°F · latest 53.6°F () · rain so far 0.75 in · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Nov 15 20:28Z · market

UPDATE · Nov 15 17:13Z PBE 17% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 17:00Z
UPDATE · Nov 15 20:18Z PBE 4% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Nov 15 19:43Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “63° to 64°” from 12% to 32% (+20 pts).
Later data cutoff: Nov 14 17:00Z → Nov 14 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 9% to 6%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 14 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 14 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 14 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 14 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “63° to 64°” from 12% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 5°F to 4°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 59°F to 60°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 66°F to 64°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	18h	12h	—
National Blend spread	5°F	4°F	yes
GFS MOS forecast high	59°F	60°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	66°F	64°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Nov 14 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“63° to 64°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 14 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Nov 14 15:02Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Nov 14 15:04Z	Kalshi mid	11
Nov 14 15:06Z	Kalshi mid	9
Nov 14 15:12Z	Kalshi mid	9
Nov 14 15:14Z	Kalshi mid	8
Nov 14 15:18Z	Kalshi mid	8
Nov 14 15:22Z	Kalshi mid	9
Nov 14 15:38Z	Kalshi mid	9
Nov 14 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	9
Nov 14 16:12Z	Kalshi mid	9
Nov 14 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	12
Nov 14 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	9
Nov 14 17:30Z	Kalshi mid	8
Nov 14 18:00Z	Kalshi mid	8
Nov 14 18:06Z	Kalshi mid	8
Nov 14 18:44Z	Kalshi mid	8
Nov 14 19:00Z	Kalshi mid	8
Nov 14 19:32Z	Kalshi mid	6
Nov 14 19:38Z	Kalshi mid	6
Nov 14 19:42Z	Kalshi mid	5
Nov 14 19:44Z	Kalshi mid	4
Nov 14 19:46Z	Kalshi mid	3
Nov 14 19:50Z	Kalshi mid	3
Nov 14 20:00Z	Kalshi mid	3
Nov 14 20:04Z	Kalshi mid	3
Nov 14 20:24Z	Kalshi mid	4
Nov 14 20:26Z	Kalshi mid	4
Nov 14 20:42Z	Kalshi mid	4
Nov 14 20:58Z	Kalshi mid	5
Nov 14 21:00Z	Kalshi mid	5
Nov 14 21:02Z	Kalshi mid	4
Nov 14 22:00Z	Kalshi mid	4
Nov 14 22:02Z	Kalshi mid	4
Nov 14 22:56Z	Kalshi mid	5
Nov 14 23:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Nov 14 23:00Z	Kalshi mid	6

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 9% to 6%.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Nov 14 17:00Z	Nov 14 23:00Z
Data cutoff	Nov 14 17:00Z	Nov 14 23:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T12Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-14T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-14T18Z
PBE	12%	32%
Market at capture	9%	6%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

63° to 64°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: 5ccc7b7b-135e-4d7e-bcbf-874edf234b80
Compared with: 0e8560de-0b45-4b45-a216-1c5b001885e9
Captured: Nov 14 23:00Z
Data cutoff: Nov 14 23:00Z
Market observation: 6% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-15, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 15, 2026, is between 63-64° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.