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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 16, 2026: PBE moves “58° or above” up to 47% from 29%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 15:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Nov 15. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 15 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

29%47%

58° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 15:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+18 pts
Market at capture50%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 16, 2026?

58° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE47%0 pts since publication
Kalshi63%+13 pts since publication
Gap−16

RESEARCH PBE Nov 15 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “58° or above” from 29% to 47% (+18 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 15 11:00Z → Nov 15 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 15 15:00Z (data cutoff Nov 15 11:00Z) and the one at Nov 15 17:00Z (cutoff Nov 15 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “58° or above” from 29% to 47%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 58°F to 59°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 56°F to 57°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
GFS MOS forecast high58°F59°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high56°F57°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 15 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“58° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 15 15:00ZNov 15 16:00ZNov 15 17:00Z29%47%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 29% · Nov 15 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 47% · Nov 15 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 15 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 15 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.029
Nov 15 15:04ZKalshi mid41
Nov 15 15:06ZKalshi mid53
Nov 15 15:10ZKalshi mid52
Nov 15 15:12ZKalshi mid53
Nov 15 15:16ZKalshi mid52
Nov 15 15:18ZKalshi mid52
Nov 15 15:20ZKalshi mid53
Nov 15 15:28ZKalshi mid53
Nov 15 15:30ZKalshi mid52
Nov 15 15:32ZKalshi mid51
Nov 15 16:00ZKalshi mid51
Nov 15 16:06ZKalshi mid51
Nov 15 16:10ZKalshi mid52
Nov 15 16:12ZKalshi mid53
Nov 15 16:16ZKalshi mid50
Nov 15 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.047
Nov 15 17:00ZKalshi mid50

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 15 15:00ZNov 15 17:00Z
Data cutoffNov 15 11:00ZNov 15 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-15T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-15T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-15T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-15T12Z
PBE29%47%
Market at capture—50%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

58° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
39bc18b1-6ad2-4254-9658-1ea4ee1b7ec0
Compared with
0c2c6486-1516-4b07-bb5b-825e0fcfd77c
Captured
Nov 15 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 15 17:00Z
Market observation
50% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-16, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 16, 2026, is greater than 57° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.