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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 2, 2026: PBE moves “84° to 85°” up to 32% from 20%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:06 UTC on Nov 1. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 1 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

20%32%

84° to 85° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:06 UTC

Move+12 pts
Market at capture50%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 2, 2026?

84° to 85° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE32%0 pts since publication
Kalshi49%−3 pts since publication
Gap−17

RESEARCH PBE Nov 1 23:06Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “84° to 85°” from 20% to 32% (+12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 1 17:00Z → Nov 1 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 52% to 50%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 1 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 1 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 1 23:06Z (cutoff Nov 1 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “84° to 85°” from 20% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 2°F to 3°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 89°F to 90°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 86°F to 85°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time18h12h—
National Blend spread2°F3°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high89°F90°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high86°F85°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 1 23:06ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“84° to 85°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 1 15:00ZNov 1 19:03ZNov 1 23:06Z20%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Nov 1 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Nov 1 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 1 23:06Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 1 23:06ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 1 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Nov 1 15:02ZKalshi mid43
Nov 1 15:04ZKalshi mid42
Nov 1 15:06ZKalshi mid43
Nov 1 15:08ZKalshi mid43
Nov 1 15:10ZKalshi mid44
Nov 1 15:16ZKalshi mid45
Nov 1 15:40ZKalshi mid44
Nov 1 15:44ZKalshi mid45
Nov 1 15:46ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 15:48ZKalshi mid47
Nov 1 15:52ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 15:54ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 15:56ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 15:58ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 16:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 16:08ZKalshi mid51
Nov 1 16:16ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 16:34ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 16:36ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Nov 1 17:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 18:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 19:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 20:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 20:14ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 21:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 22:00ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 22:36ZKalshi mid52
Nov 1 22:52ZKalshi mid49
Nov 1 22:56ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 23:00ZKalshi mid50
Nov 1 23:06ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 52% to 50%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 1 17:00ZNov 1 23:06Z
Data cutoffNov 1 17:00ZNov 1 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-01T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-01T18Z
PBE20%32%
Market at capture52%50%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

84° to 85°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
c7f4ec84-c66d-4a82-8d42-6b73132a0a5f
Compared with
b553ce12-d012-4b30-af4a-ac8538db8e96
Captured
Nov 1 23:06Z
Data cutoff
Nov 1 23:00Z
Market observation
50% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-02, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 2, 2026, is between 84-85° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.