WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 3, 2026: PBE moves “79° to 80°” down to 12% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 2. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published November 2, 2026 at 23:59 UTCModel data as of Nov 2 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%12%

79° to 80° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−20 pts

Market at capture47%

Inputs changed2primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 3, 2026?

79° to 80° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE12%0 pts since publication

Kalshi48%+3 pts since publication

Gap−36

RESEARCH PBE Nov 2 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° to 80°” from 32% to 12% (−20 pts).
Later data cutoff: Nov 2 17:00Z → Nov 2 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 45% to 47%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 2 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 2 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 2 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 2 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° to 80°” from 32% to 12%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 83°F to 81°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 78°F to 76°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	18h	12h	—
GFS MOS forecast high	83°F	81°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	78°F	76°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Nov 2 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° to 80°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 2 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Nov 2 15:02Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	22
Nov 2 15:10Z	Kalshi mid	38
Nov 2 15:16Z	Kalshi mid	38
Nov 2 15:20Z	Kalshi mid	38
Nov 2 15:22Z	Kalshi mid	39
Nov 2 15:24Z	Kalshi mid	41
Nov 2 15:28Z	Kalshi mid	43
Nov 2 15:46Z	Kalshi mid	44
Nov 2 15:48Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 15:50Z	Kalshi mid	47
Nov 2 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	47
Nov 2 16:06Z	Kalshi mid	47
Nov 2 16:26Z	Kalshi mid	48
Nov 2 16:36Z	Kalshi mid	44
Nov 2 16:38Z	Kalshi mid	44
Nov 2 16:40Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Nov 2 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 17:02Z	Kalshi mid	44
Nov 2 17:16Z	Kalshi mid	44
Nov 2 17:28Z	Kalshi mid	47
Nov 2 17:32Z	Kalshi mid	48
Nov 2 17:34Z	Kalshi mid	48
Nov 2 17:36Z	Kalshi mid	47
Nov 2 17:42Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 17:50Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 17:52Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 18:00Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 18:02Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 18:10Z	Kalshi mid	47
Nov 2 18:36Z	Kalshi mid	48
Nov 2 18:56Z	Kalshi mid	49
Nov 2 19:00Z	Kalshi mid	49
Nov 2 19:02Z	Kalshi mid	49
Nov 2 19:26Z	Kalshi mid	48
Nov 2 19:56Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 20:00Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 20:14Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 20:20Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 20:56Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 21:00Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 21:02Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 21:34Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 21:48Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 22:00Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 22:18Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 22:28Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 22:36Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 22:44Z	Kalshi mid	45
Nov 2 22:46Z	Kalshi mid	47
Nov 2 22:48Z	Kalshi mid	48
Nov 2 22:52Z	Kalshi mid	46
Nov 2 22:56Z	Kalshi mid	47
Nov 2 23:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	12
Nov 2 23:00Z	Kalshi mid	47

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 45% to 47%.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Nov 2 17:00Z	Nov 2 23:00Z
Data cutoff	Nov 2 17:00Z	Nov 2 23:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T12Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T18Z
PBE	32%	12%
Market at capture	45%	47%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° to 80°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: 4d5b3bc0-ae62-4a1f-bb69-c9a81b122967
Compared with: 8f2512eb-89df-458a-9fa8-be66659a3a7a
Captured: Nov 2 23:00Z
Data cutoff: Nov 2 23:00Z
Market observation: 47% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-03, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 3, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.