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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 8, 2026: PBE moves “68° to 69°” down to 22% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 7 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%22%

68° to 69° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−10 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Nov 8, 2026?

68° to 69° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE22%0 pts since publication
Kalshi2%−2 pts since publication
Gap+20

RESEARCH PBE Nov 7 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “68° to 69°” from 32% to 22% (−10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 7 17:00Z → Nov 7 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 4% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 7 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 7 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 7 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 7 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “68° to 69°” from 32% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 4°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 62°F to 64°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 67°F to 66°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time18h12h—
National Blend spread3°F4°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high62°F64°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high67°F66°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 7 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“68° to 69°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 7 15:02ZNov 7 19:01ZNov 7 23:00Z32%22%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 7 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Nov 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 7 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 7 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 7 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Nov 7 15:02ZKalshi mid5
Nov 7 15:08ZKalshi mid4
Nov 7 15:14ZKalshi mid4
Nov 7 15:20ZKalshi mid5
Nov 7 15:24ZKalshi mid4
Nov 7 15:30ZKalshi mid4
Nov 7 15:40ZKalshi mid4
Nov 7 16:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Nov 7 17:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 7 17:38ZKalshi mid3
Nov 7 18:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 7 18:02ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 18:08ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 18:16ZKalshi mid3
Nov 7 18:30ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 18:32ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 19:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 7 19:06ZKalshi mid3
Nov 7 19:22ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 19:24ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 20:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 20:04ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 21:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 21:06ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 22:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 7 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Nov 7 23:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 4% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 7 17:00ZNov 7 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 7 17:00ZNov 7 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-07T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-07T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-07T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-07T18Z
PBE32%22%
Market at capture4%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

68° to 69°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
451cb6c0-16cc-404f-bd6e-134dc240a8fe
Compared with
fdc2a859-5bd2-403e-bfd8-e771af459003
Captured
Nov 7 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 7 23:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-08, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Nov 8, 2026, is between 68-69° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.