WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 10, 2026: PBE moves “91° to 92°” down to 20% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:01 UTC on Oct 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 9, 2026 at 17:04 UTCModel data as of Oct 9 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%20%

91° to 92° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:01 UTC

Move−12 pts

Market at capture36%

Inputs changed2primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 10, 2026?

91° to 92° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE20%0 pts since publication

Kalshi53%+17 pts since publication

Gap−33

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 23:01Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “91° to 92°” from 32% to 20% (−12 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 9 11:00Z → Oct 9 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 9 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 9 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 9 17:01Z (cutoff Oct 9 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “91° to 92°” from 32% to 20%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 92°F to 93°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 92°F to 93°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	24h	18h	—
GFS MOS forecast high	92°F	93°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	92°F	93°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 9 17:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“91° to 92°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 9 17:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 9 14:02Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Oct 9 14:05Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 9 14:07Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 9 14:08Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 9 14:11Z	Kalshi mid	36
Oct 9 14:17Z	Kalshi mid	36
Oct 9 14:25Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 9 14:49Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 9 15:02Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 9 15:09Z	Kalshi mid	33
Oct 9 16:01Z	Kalshi mid	33
Oct 9 16:19Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 9 16:21Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 9 16:25Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 9 16:29Z	Kalshi mid	36
Oct 9 16:33Z	Kalshi mid	36
Oct 9 16:35Z	Kalshi mid	37
Oct 9 16:43Z	Kalshi mid	37
Oct 9 16:53Z	Kalshi mid	36
Oct 9 16:54Z	Kalshi mid	37
Oct 9 17:01Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	20
Oct 9 17:01Z	Kalshi mid	36

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 9 14:02Z	Oct 9 17:01Z
Data cutoff	Oct 9 11:00Z	Oct 9 17:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-09T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-09T06Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-09T12Z
PBE	32%	20%
Market at capture	—	36%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

91° to 92°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: 834a634e-1a5c-4ca8-a8f6-8b330bcd80e9
Compared with: 59e15f27-a576-4069-ba39-87b63c8dc6e9
Captured: Oct 9 17:01Z
Data cutoff: Oct 9 17:00Z
Market observation: 36% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 10, 2026, is between 91-92° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.