WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 11, 2026: PBE moves “92° to 93°” down to 20% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 10. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 10, 2026 at 17:04 UTCModel data as of Oct 10 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%20%

92° to 93° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−12 pts

Market at capture47%

Inputs changed2primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 11, 2026?

92° to 93° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday23%+3 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 93.9°F · latest 80.6°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 11 22:03Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 10 23:00Z PBE 32% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 10 23:00Z
UPDATE · Oct 11 12:03Z PBE 42% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 11 11:43Z
UPDATE · Oct 11 15:53Z PBE 31% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 11 15:53Z
UPDATE · Oct 11 20:03Z PBE 48% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 11 19:18Z
UPDATE · Oct 11 20:18Z PBE 11% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 11 20:18Z
UPDATE · Oct 11 22:03Z PBE 23% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 11 21:18Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “92° to 93°” from 32% to 20% (−12 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 10 11:00Z → Oct 10 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, National Blend of Models forecast high.
A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 10 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 10 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 10 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 10 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “92° to 93°” from 32% to 20%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 4°F to 3°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 93°F to 94°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	24h	18h	—
National Blend spread	4°F	3°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	93°F	94°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 10 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“92° to 93°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 10 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 10 14:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Oct 10 14:02Z	Kalshi mid	42
Oct 10 14:06Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 10 14:08Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 10 14:14Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 10 14:16Z	Kalshi mid	49
Oct 10 14:18Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 10 14:22Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 10 14:24Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 10 14:26Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 10 14:36Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 10 14:40Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 10 14:46Z	Kalshi mid	53
Oct 10 14:52Z	Kalshi mid	52
Oct 10 14:56Z	Kalshi mid	52
Oct 10 14:58Z	Kalshi mid	51
Oct 10 15:00Z	Kalshi mid	50
Oct 10 15:02Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 10 15:04Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 10 15:06Z	Kalshi mid	49
Oct 10 15:30Z	Kalshi mid	50
Oct 10 15:32Z	Kalshi mid	50
Oct 10 15:34Z	Kalshi mid	49
Oct 10 15:36Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 10 15:38Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 10 15:46Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 10 15:48Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 10 15:58Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 10 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 10 16:06Z	Kalshi mid	46
Oct 10 16:08Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 10 16:18Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 10 16:58Z	Kalshi mid	47
Oct 10 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	20
Oct 10 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	47

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 10 14:00Z	Oct 10 17:00Z
Data cutoff	Oct 10 11:00Z	Oct 10 17:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-10T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-10T06Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-10T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-10T12Z
PBE	32%	20%
Market at capture	—	47%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

92° to 93°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: a94af54c-f6d9-42ea-8454-c04a0a3e36de
Compared with: 436a2411-9f00-415e-86cd-cf9d1c676d2c
Captured: Oct 10 17:00Z
Data cutoff: Oct 10 17:00Z
Market observation: 47% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-11, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 11, 2026, is between 92-93° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.