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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 13, 2026: PBE moves “97° to 98°” up to 32% from 22%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 12 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

22%32%

97° to 98° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+10 pts
Market at capture40%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 13, 2026?

97° to 98° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE32%0 pts since publication
Kalshi42%+2 pts since publication
Gap−10

RESEARCH PBE Oct 12 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “97° to 98°” from 22% to 32% (+10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 12 11:00Z → Oct 12 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 12 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 12 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 12 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 12 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “97° to 98°” from 22% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 92°F to 94°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 95°F to 96°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
GFS MOS forecast high92°F94°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high95°F96°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 12 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“97° to 98°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 12 14:00ZOct 12 15:30ZOct 12 17:00Z22%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 12 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 12 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 12 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 12 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 12 14:06ZKalshi mid24
Oct 12 14:08ZKalshi mid29
Oct 12 14:10ZKalshi mid30
Oct 12 14:12ZKalshi mid30
Oct 12 14:14ZKalshi mid31
Oct 12 14:20ZKalshi mid33
Oct 12 14:22ZKalshi mid42
Oct 12 14:30ZKalshi mid37
Oct 12 14:32ZKalshi mid37
Oct 12 14:38ZKalshi mid37
Oct 12 14:40ZKalshi mid36
Oct 12 14:44ZKalshi mid34
Oct 12 14:48ZKalshi mid34
Oct 12 14:50ZKalshi mid35
Oct 12 14:52ZKalshi mid32
Oct 12 14:54ZKalshi mid31
Oct 12 14:56ZKalshi mid31
Oct 12 14:58ZKalshi mid32
Oct 12 15:00ZKalshi mid38
Oct 12 15:02ZKalshi mid36
Oct 12 15:04ZKalshi mid37
Oct 12 15:06ZKalshi mid37
Oct 12 16:01ZKalshi mid37
Oct 12 16:06ZKalshi mid37
Oct 12 16:18ZKalshi mid35
Oct 12 16:20ZKalshi mid35
Oct 12 16:40ZKalshi mid36
Oct 12 16:46ZKalshi mid39
Oct 12 16:50ZKalshi mid39
Oct 12 16:52ZKalshi mid39
Oct 12 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 12 17:00ZKalshi mid40

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 12 14:00ZOct 12 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 12 11:00ZOct 12 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T12Z
PBE22%32%
Market at capture—40%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

97° to 98°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
051b908b-c61c-4997-84d8-7000978d3f9a
Compared with
46061895-6bb4-4059-9649-0a41510b3600
Captured
Oct 12 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 12 17:00Z
Market observation
40% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-13, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 13, 2026, is between 97-98° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.