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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 16, 2026: PBE moves “72° or below” up to 71% from 53%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 15. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 15 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

53%71%

72° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+18 pts
Market at capture3%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 16, 2026?

72° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE53%−18 pts since publication
Kalshi4%+1 pts since publication
Gap+49

RESEARCH PBE Oct 15 23:01Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 15 23:01Z PBE 53% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 15 23:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “72° or below” from 53% to 71% (+18 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 15 11:00Z → Oct 15 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 15 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 15 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 15 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 15 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “72° or below” from 53% to 71%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 4°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 72°F to 71°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
National Blend spread3°F4°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high72°F71°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 15 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“72° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 15 14:02ZOct 15 15:31ZOct 15 17:00Z53%71%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 53% · Oct 15 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 71% · Oct 15 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 15 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 15 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.053
Oct 15 14:06ZKalshi mid12
Oct 15 14:08ZKalshi mid16
Oct 15 14:10ZKalshi mid16
Oct 15 14:12ZKalshi mid15
Oct 15 14:14ZKalshi mid14
Oct 15 14:16ZKalshi mid9
Oct 15 14:18ZKalshi mid11
Oct 15 14:38ZKalshi mid10
Oct 15 14:48ZKalshi mid10
Oct 15 14:56ZKalshi mid10
Oct 15 14:58ZKalshi mid9
Oct 15 15:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 15 15:02ZKalshi mid9
Oct 15 15:06ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 15:14ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 15:54ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 15:56ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 16:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.071
Oct 15 17:00ZKalshi mid3

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 15 14:02ZOct 15 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 15 11:00ZOct 15 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T12Z
PBE53%71%
Market at capture—3%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

72° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
eba6a0e9-ab0f-403f-ad27-c6f1286ca32f
Compared with
ceef0895-8a70-4727-aba0-8f954a2227d2
Captured
Oct 15 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 15 17:00Z
Market observation
3% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-16, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 16, 2026, is less than 73° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.