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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 16, 2026: PBE moves “72° or below” up to 71% from 53%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:01 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 16. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 16 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

53%71%

72° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:01 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+18 pts
Market at capture34%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 16, 2026?

72° or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday1%−70 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 75.2°F · latest 75.2°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 16 07:18Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 16 07:18Z PBE 1% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 16 07:18Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “72° or below” from 53% to 71% (+18 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 15 23:00Z → Oct 16 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 7% to 34%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 15 23:01Z (data cutoff Oct 15 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 16 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 16 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “72° or below” from 53% to 71%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 4°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 74°F to 72°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 72°F to 71°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time12h6h—
National Blend spread3°F4°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high74°F72°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high72°F71°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 16 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“72° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 15 14:02ZOct 15 21:31ZOct 16 05:00Z53%71%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 53% · Oct 15 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 71% · Oct 15 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 53% · Oct 15 23:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 71% · Oct 16 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 16 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 15 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.053
Oct 15 14:06ZKalshi mid12
Oct 15 14:08ZKalshi mid16
Oct 15 14:10ZKalshi mid16
Oct 15 14:12ZKalshi mid15
Oct 15 14:14ZKalshi mid14
Oct 15 14:16ZKalshi mid9
Oct 15 14:18ZKalshi mid11
Oct 15 14:38ZKalshi mid10
Oct 15 14:48ZKalshi mid10
Oct 15 14:56ZKalshi mid10
Oct 15 14:58ZKalshi mid9
Oct 15 15:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 15 15:02ZKalshi mid9
Oct 15 15:06ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 15:14ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 15:54ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 15:56ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 16:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.071
Oct 15 17:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 17:22ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 18:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 18:24ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 19:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 19:10ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 19:33ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 19:46ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 20:01ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 20:35ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 20:37ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 21:01ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 21:35ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 21:37ZKalshi mid4
Oct 15 22:15ZKalshi mid4
Oct 15 22:47ZKalshi mid5
Oct 15 22:49ZKalshi mid7
Oct 15 22:51ZKalshi mid6
Oct 15 22:55ZKalshi mid6
Oct 15 22:59ZKalshi mid7
Oct 15 23:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.053
Oct 15 23:01ZKalshi mid7
Oct 15 23:05ZKalshi mid5
Oct 15 23:07ZKalshi mid6
Oct 15 23:13ZKalshi mid6
Oct 15 23:52ZKalshi mid6
Oct 16 00:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 16 00:04ZKalshi mid6
Oct 16 00:48ZKalshi mid5
Oct 16 00:50ZKalshi mid4
Oct 16 00:54ZKalshi mid3
Oct 16 01:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 16 01:20ZKalshi mid4
Oct 16 02:00ZKalshi mid4
Oct 16 02:06ZKalshi mid4
Oct 16 02:08ZKalshi mid4
Oct 16 02:26ZKalshi mid7
Oct 16 02:32ZKalshi mid7
Oct 16 02:40ZKalshi mid6
Oct 16 03:00ZKalshi mid8
Oct 16 03:04ZKalshi mid7
Oct 16 03:06ZKalshi mid8
Oct 16 03:10ZKalshi mid9
Oct 16 03:12ZKalshi mid9
Oct 16 03:16ZKalshi mid10
Oct 16 03:18ZKalshi mid10
Oct 16 03:30ZKalshi mid12
Oct 16 03:32ZKalshi mid12
Oct 16 03:38ZKalshi mid13
Oct 16 03:44ZKalshi mid14
Oct 16 03:46ZKalshi mid17
Oct 16 03:52ZKalshi mid17
Oct 16 03:54ZKalshi mid16
Oct 16 03:56ZKalshi mid16
Oct 16 03:58ZKalshi mid14
Oct 16 04:00ZKalshi mid14
Oct 16 04:06ZKalshi mid14
Oct 16 04:18ZKalshi mid12
Oct 16 04:20ZKalshi mid13
Oct 16 04:38ZKalshi mid21
Oct 16 04:40ZKalshi mid21
Oct 16 04:42ZKalshi mid24
Oct 16 04:44ZKalshi mid26
Oct 16 04:46ZKalshi mid28
Oct 16 04:48ZKalshi mid30
Oct 16 04:50ZKalshi mid30
Oct 16 04:54ZKalshi mid34
Oct 16 04:56ZKalshi mid28
Oct 16 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.071
Oct 16 05:00ZKalshi mid34

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 7% to 34%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 15 23:01ZOct 16 05:00Z
Data cutoffOct 15 23:00ZOct 16 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-16T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-16T00Z
PBE53%71%
Market at capture7%34%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

72° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
bbda753c-5f97-4bed-a762-2ad5157ee2cf
Compared with
6da9087b-78af-498e-b063-47ea6fdabc3d
Captured
Oct 16 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 16 05:00Z
Market observation
34% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-16, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 16, 2026, is less than 73° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.