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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 28, 2026: PBE moves “84° to 85°” down to 20% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 27. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 27 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%20%

84° to 85° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−12 pts
Market at capture44%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 28, 2026?

84° to 85° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE20%0 pts since publication
Kalshi44%+1 pts since publication
Gap−24

RESEARCH PBE Oct 27 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “84° to 85°” from 32% to 20% (−12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 27 17:00Z → Oct 27 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 43% to 44%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 27 17:00Z (data cutoff Oct 27 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 27 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 27 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “84° to 85°” from 32% to 20%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 2°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 84°F to 85°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 85°F to 86°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time18h12h—
National Blend spread3°F2°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high84°F85°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high85°F86°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 27 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“84° to 85°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 27 14:00ZOct 27 18:30ZOct 27 23:00Z32%20%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 27 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 27 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Oct 27 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 27 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 27 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 27 14:10ZKalshi mid45
Oct 27 14:14ZKalshi mid46
Oct 27 14:40ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 14:44ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 14:44ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 15:00ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 16:00ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 16:36ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 16:38ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 16:42ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 16:54ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 27 17:00ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 17:06ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 17:12ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 17:14ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 18:01ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 19:04ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 19:28ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 20:00ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 20:02ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 20:06ZKalshi mid45
Oct 27 20:32ZKalshi mid45
Oct 27 20:56ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 21:00ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 21:30ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 21:34ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 21:36ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 21:46ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 21:48ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 22:00ZKalshi mid42
Oct 27 22:02ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 22:08ZKalshi mid43
Oct 27 22:38ZKalshi mid44
Oct 27 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Oct 27 23:00ZKalshi mid44

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 43% to 44%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 27 17:00ZOct 27 23:00Z
Data cutoffOct 27 17:00ZOct 27 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-27T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-27T18Z
PBE32%20%
Market at capture43%44%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

84° to 85°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
97826e74-2a78-4a8b-8bfe-ac09c1afc488
Compared with
f7939967-df88-49fc-9833-6b7e15bd06bb
Captured
Oct 27 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 27 23:00Z
Market observation
44% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-28, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 28, 2026, is between 84-85° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.