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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 30, 2026: PBE moves “77° to 78°” down to 22% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 30. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 30 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%22%

77° to 78° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move−10 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 30, 2026?

77° to 78° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday1%−21 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 71.6°F · latest 66.0°F () · rain so far 0.31 in · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 30 22:38Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 30 20:43Z PBE 4% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 30 20:43Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “77° to 78°” from 32% to 22% (−10 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 29 23:00Z → Oct 30 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 3% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 29 23:00Z (data cutoff Oct 29 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 30 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 30 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “77° to 78°” from 32% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 76°F to 75°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time12h6h—
National Blend of Models forecast high76°F75°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 30 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“77° to 78°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 29 14:00ZOct 29 21:30ZOct 30 05:00Z32%22%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 29 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 29 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 29 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 30 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 30 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 29 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 29 14:02ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 14:04ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 14:40ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 15:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 15:06ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 15:34ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 16:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 16:14ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 16:42ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 16:52ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 29 17:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 17:02ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 17:30ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 17:32ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 17:56ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 18:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 18:10ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 18:14ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 18:16ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 18:40ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 19:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 29 19:04ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 19:32ZKalshi mid4
Oct 29 19:44ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 19:46ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 20:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 29 20:02ZKalshi mid4
Oct 29 20:14ZKalshi mid4
Oct 29 20:16ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 20:20ZKalshi mid4
Oct 29 20:22ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 20:36ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 20:38ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 21:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 21:12ZKalshi mid2
Oct 29 21:14ZKalshi mid2
Oct 29 21:22ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 21:48ZKalshi mid4
Oct 29 22:00ZKalshi mid4
Oct 29 22:06ZKalshi mid4
Oct 29 22:24ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 29 23:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 23:02ZKalshi mid3
Oct 29 23:48ZKalshi mid2
Oct 30 00:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 30 00:08ZKalshi mid2
Oct 30 01:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 30 02:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 30 03:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 30 04:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 30 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 30 05:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 3% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 29 23:00ZOct 30 05:00Z
Data cutoffOct 29 23:00ZOct 30 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-29T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-29T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T00Z
PBE32%22%
Market at capture3%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

77° to 78°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
83902b56-303b-419c-950a-b04a5e5a3913
Compared with
b18b5e5d-2d87-4b0d-9556-b4a3eec9375e
Captured
Oct 30 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 30 05:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-30, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 30, 2026, is between 77-78° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.