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Austin — photograph (Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 31, 2026: PBE moves “79° to 80°” up to 32% from 20%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 30. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 30 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

20%32%

79° to 80° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+12 pts
Market at capture19%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 31, 2026?

79° to 80° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE32%0 pts since publication
Kalshi18%−1 pts since publication
Gap+14

RESEARCH PBE Oct 30 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° to 80°” from 20% to 32% (+12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 30 11:00Z → Oct 30 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 30 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 30 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 30 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 30 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° to 80°” from 20% to 32%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 80°F to 79°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 81°F to 80°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
GFS MOS forecast high80°F79°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high81°F80°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 30 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° to 80°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 30 14:00ZOct 30 15:30ZOct 30 17:00Z20%32%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Oct 30 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 30 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 30 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 30 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Oct 30 14:06ZKalshi mid22
Oct 30 14:14ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 14:30ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 14:32ZKalshi mid22
Oct 30 14:36ZKalshi mid22
Oct 30 14:38ZKalshi mid22
Oct 30 14:46ZKalshi mid23
Oct 30 14:48ZKalshi mid21
Oct 30 14:52ZKalshi mid18
Oct 30 14:54ZKalshi mid18
Oct 30 14:56ZKalshi mid17
Oct 30 15:00ZKalshi mid17
Oct 30 15:14ZKalshi mid20
Oct 30 16:00ZKalshi mid20
Oct 30 16:36ZKalshi mid20
Oct 30 16:42ZKalshi mid19
Oct 30 16:48ZKalshi mid19
Oct 30 16:52ZKalshi mid18
Oct 30 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 30 17:00ZKalshi mid19

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 30 14:00ZOct 30 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 30 11:00ZOct 30 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-30T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-30T12Z
PBE20%32%
Market at capture—19%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° to 80°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
006196f5-a72b-40e8-8cf4-2719ba3cd622
Compared with
fe4c7734-fbe8-4473-a222-fad56176b737
Captured
Oct 30 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 30 17:00Z
Market observation
19% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-31, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 31, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.