WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 4, 2026: PBE moves “84° to 85°” down to 22% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 20:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Oct 3. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 4, 2026 at 16:02 UTCModel data as of Oct 3 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%22%

84° to 85° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 20:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−10 pts

Market at capture16%

Inputs changed2primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 4, 2026?

84° to 85° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday1%−21 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 77.0°F · latest 75.2°F () · rain so far 0.06 in · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 4 22:23Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 4 20:13Z PBE 1% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 4 19:43Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “84° to 85°” from 32% to 22% (−10 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 3 17:00Z → Oct 3 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 21% to 16%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 3 20:00Z (data cutoff Oct 3 17:00Z) and the one at Oct 3 23:00Z (cutoff Oct 3 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “84° to 85°” from 32% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 79°F to 80°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 83°F to 82°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	18h	12h	—
GFS MOS forecast high	79°F	80°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	83°F	82°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 3 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“84° to 85°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 3 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 3 18:31Z	Kalshi mid	23
Oct 3 18:45Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Oct 3 18:45Z	Kalshi mid	23
Oct 3 19:00Z	Kalshi mid	24
Oct 3 19:15Z	Kalshi mid	23
Oct 3 19:30Z	Kalshi mid	22
Oct 3 19:45Z	Kalshi mid	22
Oct 3 20:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Oct 3 20:00Z	Kalshi mid	21
Oct 3 20:30Z	Kalshi mid	18
Oct 3 21:00Z	Kalshi mid	18
Oct 3 21:30Z	Kalshi mid	18
Oct 3 22:00Z	Kalshi mid	17
Oct 3 22:15Z	Kalshi mid	16
Oct 3 22:30Z	Kalshi mid	16
Oct 3 23:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	22
Oct 3 23:00Z	Kalshi mid	16

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 21% to 16%.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 3 20:00Z	Oct 3 23:00Z
Data cutoff	Oct 3 17:00Z	Oct 3 23:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-03T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-03T12Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-03T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-03T18Z
PBE	32%	22%
Market at capture	21%	16%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

84° to 85°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: 76a21964-a8ee-4099-b392-4cd53e7b9d11
Compared with: 7cb66211-e682-44c9-952f-0416615c0dfb
Captured: Oct 3 23:00Z
Data cutoff: Oct 3 23:00Z
Market observation: 16% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-04, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 4, 2026, is between 84-85° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.