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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 5, 2026: PBE moves “89° or above” up to 29% from 15%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 4. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 4 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

15%29%

89° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture6%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 5, 2026?

89° or above · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday99%+70 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 89.6°F · latest 69.8°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 5 22:28Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 4 23:01Z PBE 15% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 4 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 5 17:03Z PBE 89% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 5 17:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 5 22:28Z PBE 99% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 5 22:28Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “89° or above” from 15% to 29% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 4 11:00Z → Oct 4 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 4 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 4 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 4 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 4 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “89° or above” from 15% to 29%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 2°F to 4°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 88°F to 87°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 86°F to 87°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
National Blend spread2°F4°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high88°F87°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high86°F87°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 4 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“89° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 4 14:00ZOct 4 15:30ZOct 4 17:00Z15%29%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 15% · Oct 4 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 29% · Oct 4 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 4 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 4 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.015
Oct 4 14:15ZKalshi mid2
Oct 4 14:30ZKalshi mid4
Oct 4 14:45ZKalshi mid4
Oct 4 15:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 4 15:15ZKalshi mid7
Oct 4 16:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 4 16:30ZKalshi mid6
Oct 4 16:45ZKalshi mid6
Oct 4 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.029
Oct 4 17:00ZKalshi mid6

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 4 14:00ZOct 4 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 4 11:00ZOct 4 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-04T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-04T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-04T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-04T12Z
PBE15%29%
Market at capture—6%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

89° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
f2588a22-3879-4d6b-8cef-3f8304aa9988
Compared with
4f7a22ba-1bfb-439d-883d-6e2eb1dfec9b
Captured
Oct 4 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 4 17:00Z
Market observation
6% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-05, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 5, 2026, is greater than 88° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.