WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 5, 2026: PBE moves “87° to 88°” down to 22% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:01 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 5, 2026 at 05:01 UTCModel data as of Oct 5 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%22%

87° to 88° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:01 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move−10 pts

Market at capture41%

Inputs changed1primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 5, 2026?

87° to 88° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday1%−21 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 89.6°F · latest 69.8°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 5 22:28Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 5 17:03Z PBE 7% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 5 17:00Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “87° to 88°” from 32% to 22% (−10 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 4 23:00Z → Oct 5 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 31% to 41%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 4 23:01Z (data cutoff Oct 4 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 5 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 5 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “87° to 88°” from 32% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 86°F to 85°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	12h	6h	—
National Blend of Models forecast high	86°F	85°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 5 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“87° to 88°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 5 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 4 14:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Oct 4 14:15Z	Kalshi mid	51
Oct 4 14:30Z	Kalshi mid	50
Oct 4 14:45Z	Kalshi mid	48
Oct 4 15:00Z	Kalshi mid	45
Oct 4 15:15Z	Kalshi mid	40
Oct 4 15:30Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 4 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 4 16:30Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 4 16:45Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	37
Oct 4 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 17:15Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 18:00Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 18:15Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 19:00Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 19:15Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 4 19:30Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 4 20:00Z	Kalshi mid	33
Oct 4 20:15Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 4 20:30Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 20:45Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 21:01Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 4 21:31Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 22:01Z	Kalshi mid	33
Oct 4 22:15Z	Kalshi mid	33
Oct 4 22:30Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 4 22:45Z	Kalshi mid	32
Oct 4 23:01Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	32
Oct 4 23:01Z	Kalshi mid	31
Oct 4 23:24Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 4 23:40Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 4 23:58Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 5 00:00Z	Kalshi mid	34
Oct 5 00:16Z	Kalshi mid	35
Oct 5 00:50Z	Kalshi mid	36
Oct 5 01:00Z	Kalshi mid	36
Oct 5 01:20Z	Kalshi mid	37
Oct 5 01:26Z	Kalshi mid	37
Oct 5 01:34Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 5 01:46Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 5 01:48Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 5 01:56Z	Kalshi mid	38
Oct 5 02:00Z	Kalshi mid	38
Oct 5 02:46Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 5 02:56Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 5 03:00Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 5 03:16Z	Kalshi mid	40
Oct 5 03:26Z	Kalshi mid	40
Oct 5 03:36Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 5 03:42Z	Kalshi mid	40
Oct 5 03:46Z	Kalshi mid	39
Oct 5 03:52Z	Kalshi mid	40
Oct 5 03:54Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 5 04:00Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 5 04:18Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 5 04:22Z	Kalshi mid	41
Oct 5 05:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	22
Oct 5 05:00Z	Kalshi mid	41

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 31% to 41%.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 4 23:01Z	Oct 5 05:00Z
Data cutoff	Oct 4 23:00Z	Oct 5 05:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-04T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-04T18Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T00Z
PBE	32%	22%
Market at capture	31%	41%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

87° to 88°

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: 2b5c1d19-a969-48bd-9227-80a46748619a
Compared with: 89ba9f3c-2cca-42ff-b08f-95c8a8e370cd
Captured: Oct 5 05:00Z
Data cutoff: Oct 5 05:00Z
Market observation: 41% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-05, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 5, 2026, is between 87-88° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.