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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 6, 2026: PBE moves “90° or above” up to 86% from 15%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 5 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

15%86%

90° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+71 pts
Market at capture14%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 6, 2026?

90° or above · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday99%+13 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 90.0°F · latest 62.6°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 6 22:18Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 5 23:01Z PBE 6% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 5 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 6 15:18Z PBE 17% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 15:18Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 6 17:03Z PBE 78% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 17:00Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 6 19:18Z PBE 89% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 19:18Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 6 21:33Z PBE 99% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 21:28Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “90° or above” from 15% to 86% (+71 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 5 11:00Z → Oct 5 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 5 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 5 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 5 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 5 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “90° or above” from 15% to 86%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 87°F to 86°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 87°F to 92°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
GFS MOS forecast high87°F86°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high87°F92°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 5 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“90° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5 14:00ZOct 5 15:30ZOct 5 17:00Z15%86%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 15% · Oct 5 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 86% · Oct 5 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 5 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 5 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.015
Oct 5 14:02ZKalshi mid4
Oct 5 14:08ZKalshi mid11
Oct 5 14:10ZKalshi mid12
Oct 5 14:12ZKalshi mid12
Oct 5 14:16ZKalshi mid12
Oct 5 15:01ZKalshi mid12
Oct 5 15:04ZKalshi mid12
Oct 5 15:26ZKalshi mid14
Oct 5 15:30ZKalshi mid14
Oct 5 15:46ZKalshi mid14
Oct 5 16:00ZKalshi mid14
Oct 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.086
Oct 5 17:00ZKalshi mid14

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 5 14:00ZOct 5 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 5 11:00ZOct 5 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-05T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-05T12Z
PBE15%86%
Market at capture—14%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

90° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
0f315b12-f800-4b81-9723-9917856a58eb
Compared with
afa0de7d-23b8-4260-809b-0f6294b0f36b
Captured
Oct 5 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 5 17:00Z
Market observation
14% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-06, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 6, 2026, is greater than 89° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.