WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 7, 2026: PBE moves “93° or above” up to 47% from 3%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 6. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published October 6, 2026 at 17:02 UTCModel data as of Oct 6 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

3%47%

93° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+44 pts

Market at capture5%

Inputs changed3primary

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 7, 2026?

93° or above · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday21%−26 pts since publication

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 91.9°F · latest 62.6°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 7 22:13Z · market

UPDATE · Oct 6 23:01Z PBE 3% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 6 23:00Z
UPDATE · Oct 7 18:08Z PBE 13% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 17:00Z
UPDATE · Oct 7 18:28Z PBE 27% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 18:28Z
UPDATE · Oct 7 19:23Z PBE 43% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 19:23Z
UPDATE · Oct 7 20:13Z PBE 28% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 19:23Z
UPDATE · Oct 7 20:28Z PBE 62% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 20:28Z
UPDATE · Oct 7 21:38Z PBE 37% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 21:38Z
UPDATE · Oct 7 22:03Z PBE 14% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 21:38Z

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “93° or above” from 3% to 47% (+44 pts).
Later data cutoff: Oct 6 11:00Z → Oct 6 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 5%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 6 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 6 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 6 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 6 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “93° or above” from 3% to 47%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 2°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 90°F to 91°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 88°F to 92°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast

Input	Before	After	Primary
Guidance lead time	24h	18h	—
National Blend spread	3°F	2°F	yes
GFS MOS forecast high	90°F	91°F	yes
National Blend of Models forecast high	88°F	92°F	yes

Units: as labeledAs of Oct 6 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“93° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

Data table

Time (UTC)	Source	Value %
Oct 6 14:02Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	3
Oct 6 14:02Z	Kalshi mid	2
Oct 6 14:04Z	Kalshi mid	6
Oct 6 14:06Z	Kalshi mid	6
Oct 6 14:08Z	Kalshi mid	7
Oct 6 14:18Z	Kalshi mid	7
Oct 6 15:00Z	Kalshi mid	7
Oct 6 15:04Z	Kalshi mid	7
Oct 6 15:08Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 6 15:10Z	Kalshi mid	6
Oct 6 15:14Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 6 15:40Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 6 16:00Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 6 16:10Z	Kalshi mid	4
Oct 6 16:34Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 6 16:38Z	Kalshi mid	5
Oct 6 17:00Z	PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0	47
Oct 6 17:00Z	Kalshi mid	5

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 5%.

The two snapshots

	Earlier	Later
Captured	Oct 6 14:02Z	Oct 6 17:00Z
Data cutoff	Oct 6 11:00Z	Oct 6 17:00Z
Guidance runs	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-06T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-06T06Z	NWS GFS MOS 2026-10-06T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-06T12Z
PBE	3%	47%
Market at capture	2%	5%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

93° or above

Model: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot: 9c20c480-9f35-4f3b-9aaf-ab8224b5231d
Compared with: d082c181-6145-4bbc-89f4-8d4a345d25d4
Captured: Oct 6 17:00Z
Data cutoff: Oct 6 17:00Z
Market observation: 5% · captured with the snapshot
Source families: NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-07, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 7, 2026, is greater than 92° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.