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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 8, 2026: PBE moves “94° or above” up to 29% from 6%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 7 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

6%29%

94° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+23 pts
Market at capture4%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 8, 2026?

94° or above · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday6%−23 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 91.9°F · latest 69.8°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 8 22:18Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 7 23:01Z PBE 6% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 7 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 8 17:08Z PBE 22% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 17:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 8 17:18Z PBE 33% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 17:18Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 8 18:18Z PBE 21% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 18:18Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 8 19:23Z PBE 43% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 19:23Z
  6. UPDATE · Oct 8 20:03Z PBE 18% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 19:23Z
  7. UPDATE · Oct 8 21:23Z PBE 46% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 21:23Z
  8. UPDATE · Oct 8 22:03Z PBE 6% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 8 21:23Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “94° or above” from 6% to 29% (+23 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 7 11:00Z → Oct 7 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 5% to 4%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 7 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 7 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 7 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 7 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “94° or above” from 6% to 29%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 90°F to 91°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 90°F to 92°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
GFS MOS forecast high90°F91°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high90°F92°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 7 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“94° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 7 14:02ZOct 7 15:31ZOct 7 17:00Z6%29%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 6% · Oct 7 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 29% · Oct 7 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 7 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 7 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.06
Oct 7 14:02ZKalshi mid5
Oct 7 14:04ZKalshi mid6
Oct 7 14:08ZKalshi mid8
Oct 7 14:16ZKalshi mid8
Oct 7 15:00ZKalshi mid8
Oct 7 15:52ZKalshi mid7
Oct 7 15:54ZKalshi mid6
Oct 7 15:56ZKalshi mid5
Oct 7 16:00ZKalshi mid5
Oct 7 16:02ZKalshi mid5
Oct 7 16:08ZKalshi mid4
Oct 7 16:38ZKalshi mid4
Oct 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.029
Oct 7 17:00ZKalshi mid4

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 5% to 4%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 7 14:02ZOct 7 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 7 11:00ZOct 7 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-07T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-07T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-07T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-07T12Z
PBE6%29%
Market at capture5%4%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

94° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
d1405fa0-e8ea-4f4e-9d7e-65f3ae90f4eb
Compared with
5154cd85-fa81-4228-9291-b1764d9c39ed
Captured
Oct 7 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 7 17:00Z
Market observation
4% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-08, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 8, 2026, is greater than 93° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.