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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 9, 2026: PBE moves “94° to 95°” up to 22% from 5%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 8. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 8 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

5%22%

94° to 95° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+17 pts
Market at capture25%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Austin on Oct 9, 2026?

94° to 95° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday6%−16 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KAUS: high so far 91.9°F · latest 68.0°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 9 22:28Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 9 18:13Z PBE 33% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 17:13Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 9 18:28Z PBE 43% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 18:28Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 9 20:03Z PBE 29% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 19:13Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 9 21:18Z PBE 52% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 21:18Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 9 22:03Z PBE 6% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 9 21:18Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “94° to 95°” from 5% to 22% (+17 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 8 11:00Z → Oct 8 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 8 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 8 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 8 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 8 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “94° to 95°” from 5% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 3°F to 2°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 93°F to 95°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 90°F to 92°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
National Blend spread3°F2°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high93°F95°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high90°F92°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 8 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“94° to 95°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 8 14:02ZOct 8 15:31ZOct 8 17:00Z5%22%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 5% · Oct 8 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Oct 8 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 8 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 8 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.05
Oct 8 14:08ZKalshi mid21
Oct 8 14:10ZKalshi mid24
Oct 8 14:18ZKalshi mid24
Oct 8 15:00ZKalshi mid24
Oct 8 15:02ZKalshi mid23
Oct 8 15:04ZKalshi mid22
Oct 8 15:06ZKalshi mid21
Oct 8 16:00ZKalshi mid22
Oct 8 16:02ZKalshi mid24
Oct 8 16:18ZKalshi mid23
Oct 8 16:20ZKalshi mid22
Oct 8 16:38ZKalshi mid22
Oct 8 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Oct 8 17:00ZKalshi mid25

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 8 14:02ZOct 8 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 8 11:00ZOct 8 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-08T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-08T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-08T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-08T12Z
PBE5%22%
Market at capture—25%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

94° to 95°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
bcd60aca-f5f4-4b70-b301-5d9d5f8c255b
Compared with
6dbf4c6c-d9d7-4119-a6ca-fc998fe575ed
Captured
Oct 8 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 8 17:00Z
Market observation
25% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIAUS (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIAUS (WFO EWX); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00013904
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-09, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (CLIAUS) for Oct 9, 2026, is between 94-95° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.