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Chicago — photograph (Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 10, 2026: PBE moves “66° or above” down to 9% from 23%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 9. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 9 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · Wikimedia Commons

23%9%

66° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move−14 pts
Market at capture28%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 10, 2026?

66° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE9%0 pts since publication
Kalshi36%+25 pts since publication
Gap−27

RESEARCH PBE Nov 9 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “66° or above” from 23% to 9% (−14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 9 17:00Z → Nov 9 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 11% to 28%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 9 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 9 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 9 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “66° or above” from 23% to 9%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 65°F to 66°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 63°F to 61°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time18h12h—
GFS MOS forecast high65°F66°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high63°F61°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 9 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“66° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 9 15:02ZNov 9 19:01ZNov 9 23:00Z23%9%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 9% · Nov 9 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 23% · Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 9% · Nov 9 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 9 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 9 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.09
Nov 9 15:02ZKalshi mid19
Nov 9 15:06ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 15:10ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 15:14ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 15:16ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 15:20ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 15:34ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 15:58ZKalshi mid14
Nov 9 16:00ZKalshi mid12
Nov 9 16:04ZKalshi mid12
Nov 9 16:20ZKalshi mid10
Nov 9 16:22ZKalshi mid10
Nov 9 16:36ZKalshi mid10
Nov 9 16:42ZKalshi mid11
Nov 9 16:50ZKalshi mid11
Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.023
Nov 9 17:00ZKalshi mid11
Nov 9 17:12ZKalshi mid11
Nov 9 17:14ZKalshi mid12
Nov 9 17:34ZKalshi mid13
Nov 9 17:38ZKalshi mid13
Nov 9 17:46ZKalshi mid13
Nov 9 18:00ZKalshi mid13
Nov 9 18:04ZKalshi mid14
Nov 9 18:08ZKalshi mid17
Nov 9 18:10ZKalshi mid18
Nov 9 18:12ZKalshi mid19
Nov 9 18:14ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 18:18ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 19:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 9 19:02ZKalshi mid22
Nov 9 19:04ZKalshi mid23
Nov 9 19:10ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 19:14ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 19:18ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 19:20ZKalshi mid29
Nov 9 19:22ZKalshi mid31
Nov 9 19:40ZKalshi mid31
Nov 9 19:48ZKalshi mid29
Nov 9 19:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 19:56ZKalshi mid27
Nov 9 20:00ZKalshi mid27
Nov 9 20:02ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 20:04ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 20:10ZKalshi mid27
Nov 9 20:20ZKalshi mid27
Nov 9 20:26ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 21:00ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 21:10ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 21:12ZKalshi mid27
Nov 9 21:18ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 21:22ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 21:32ZKalshi mid26
Nov 9 21:38ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 21:42ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 21:44ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 21:48ZKalshi mid26
Nov 9 21:50ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 22:00ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 22:02ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 22:04ZKalshi mid25
Nov 9 22:08ZKalshi mid26
Nov 9 22:10ZKalshi mid26
Nov 9 22:12ZKalshi mid24
Nov 9 22:14ZKalshi mid24
Nov 9 22:22ZKalshi mid26
Nov 9 22:24ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 22:26ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 22:36ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 22:44ZKalshi mid29
Nov 9 22:50ZKalshi mid28
Nov 9 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.09
Nov 9 23:00ZKalshi mid28

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 11% to 28%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 9 17:00ZNov 9 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 9 17:00ZNov 9 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T18Z
PBE23%9%
Market at capture11%28%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

66° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
0cab9bca-35c4-4f0b-a388-56f4b851356f
Compared with
a8b0aee4-751d-4a6f-b853-ab41ae33d020
Captured
Nov 9 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 9 23:00Z
Market observation
28% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMDW (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMDW (WFO LOT); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00014819
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 65° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.