Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 16, 2026: PBE moves “57° or above” down to 9% from 35%
New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 15. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.
Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · Wikimedia Commons
57° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC
Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 16, 2026?
57° or above · PRE-WINDOW
Quick read
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “57° or above” from 35% to 9% (−26 pts).
- Later data cutoff: Nov 15 17:00Z → Nov 15 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
- Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
- The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.
What changed in the inputs
Between the snapshot captured at Nov 15 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 15 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 15 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 15 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “57° or above” from 35% to 9%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 55°F to 52°F.
| Input | Before | After | Primary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidance lead time | 18h | 12h | — |
| National Blend of Models forecast high | 55°F | 52°F | yes |
This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.
The forecast path
Data table
| Time (UTC) | Source | Value % |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 15:02Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 9 |
| Nov 15 15:02Z | Kalshi mid | 4 |
| Nov 15 15:04Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 15:32Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 16:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 17:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 35 |
| Nov 15 17:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 17:46Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 18:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 18:02Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 19:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 20:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 21:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 22:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
| Nov 15 23:00Z | PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 | 9 |
| Nov 15 23:00Z | Kalshi mid | 2 |
The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.
The two snapshots
| Earlier | Later | |
|---|---|---|
| Captured | Nov 15 17:00Z | Nov 15 23:00Z |
| Data cutoff | Nov 15 17:00Z | Nov 15 23:00Z |
| Guidance runs | NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-15T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-15T12Z | NWS GFS MOS 2026-11-15T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-15T18Z |
| PBE | 35% | 9% |
| Market at capture | 2% | 2% |
Evidence & method
What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.
- Model
- pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
- Snapshot
- 3d3af7b1-83a5-4bb2-8af0-6620abb35381
- Compared with
- ec9340f4-7ac2-4e58-aa00-34726a00c270
- Captured
- Nov 15 23:00Z
- Data cutoff
- Nov 15 23:00Z
- Market observation
- 2% · captured with the snapshot
- Source families
- NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
- Resolves on
- The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMDW (weather.com/kalshi)
- Independent check
- NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMDW (WFO LOT); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00014819
- Measurement
- Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-16, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
- Rounding
- Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
- Exceptions
- Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
- Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
- Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)
Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →
Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.