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Chicago — photograph (Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 8, 2026: PBE moves “57° to 58°” up to 22% from 8%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 7. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 7 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · Wikimedia Commons

8%22%

57° to 58° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+14 pts
Market at capture8%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 8, 2026?

57° to 58° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE22%0 pts since publication
Kalshi9%0 pts since publication
Gap+13

RESEARCH PBE Nov 7 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “57° to 58°” from 8% to 22% (+14 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 7 17:00Z → Nov 7 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 9% to 8%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 7 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 7 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 7 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 7 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “57° to 58°” from 8% to 22%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 61°F to 59°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time18h12h—
National Blend of Models forecast high61°F59°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 7 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“57° to 58°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 7 15:02ZNov 7 19:01ZNov 7 23:00Z8%22%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 7 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 8% · Nov 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 22% · Nov 7 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 7 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 7 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Nov 7 15:02ZKalshi mid7
Nov 7 15:04ZKalshi mid8
Nov 7 15:30ZKalshi mid8
Nov 7 15:32ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 16:00ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 16:06ZKalshi mid8
Nov 7 16:08ZKalshi mid7
Nov 7 16:12ZKalshi mid7
Nov 7 16:18ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.08
Nov 7 17:00ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 17:04ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 17:08ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 18:00ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 18:02ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 19:00ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 19:28ZKalshi mid10
Nov 7 20:00ZKalshi mid10
Nov 7 20:04ZKalshi mid10
Nov 7 21:00ZKalshi mid10
Nov 7 21:02ZKalshi mid10
Nov 7 22:00ZKalshi mid10
Nov 7 22:04ZKalshi mid9
Nov 7 22:14ZKalshi mid7
Nov 7 22:18ZKalshi mid8
Nov 7 22:36ZKalshi mid8
Nov 7 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.022
Nov 7 23:00ZKalshi mid8

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 9% to 8%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 7 17:00ZNov 7 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 7 17:00ZNov 7 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-07T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-07T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-07T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-07T18Z
PBE8%22%
Market at capture9%8%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

57° to 58°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
8417fcb5-b9f3-4d3a-abfe-f80355b9a104
Compared with
c1936f0f-1c8f-4f41-bd55-08cabe1457d6
Captured
Nov 7 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 7 23:00Z
Market observation
8% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMDW (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMDW (WFO LOT); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00014819
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-08, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Nov 8, 2026, is between 57-58° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.