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Chicago — photograph (Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · via Wikimedia Commons)
WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 12, 2026: PBE moves “83° or below” down to 21% from 34%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:01 UTC and 17:01 UTC on Oct 11. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 11 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · Wikimedia Commons

34%21%

83° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:01 UTC → 17:01 UTC

Move−13 pts
Market at capture7%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 12, 2026?

83° or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday1%−20 pts since publication
KalshiNo two-sided quote
GapNo comparable quote

At KMDW: high so far 88.0°F · latest 87.8°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 12 22:02Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 11 23:00Z PBE 34% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 11 23:00Z
  2. UPDATE · Oct 12 05:00Z PBE 21% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 05:00Z
  3. UPDATE · Oct 12 12:22Z PBE 32% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 12:22Z
  4. UPDATE · Oct 12 15:27Z PBE 44% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 15:27Z
  5. UPDATE · Oct 12 16:27Z PBE 34% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 16:27Z
  6. UPDATE · Oct 12 17:02Z PBE 19% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 17:00Z
  7. UPDATE · Oct 12 18:12Z PBE 29% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 17:27Z
  8. UPDATE · Oct 12 20:22Z PBE 1% pbe-weather-maxtemp-intraday@2.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 12 20:22Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “83° or below” from 34% to 21% (−13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 11 11:00Z → Oct 11 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 11 14:01Z (data cutoff Oct 11 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 11 17:01Z (cutoff Oct 11 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “83° or below” from 34% to 21%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 84°F to 85°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
National Blend of Models forecast high84°F85°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 11 17:01ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“83° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 11 14:01ZOct 11 15:31ZOct 11 17:01Z34%21%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 34% · Oct 11 14:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 21% · Oct 11 17:01Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 11 17:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 11 14:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.034
Oct 11 14:04ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 14:06ZKalshi mid6
Oct 11 14:08ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 14:12ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 15:00ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 15:24ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 16:01ZKalshi mid8
Oct 11 16:10ZKalshi mid9
Oct 11 16:12ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 16:20ZKalshi mid7
Oct 11 17:01ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.021
Oct 11 17:01ZKalshi mid7

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 11 14:01ZOct 11 17:01Z
Data cutoffOct 11 11:00ZOct 11 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-11T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-11T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-11T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-11T12Z
PBE34%21%
Market at capture—7%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

83° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
ad3a3697-8887-4262-9669-f00ea8760dac
Compared with
1613e56b-950a-4d1b-b2d0-218121917d12
Captured
Oct 11 17:01Z
Data cutoff
Oct 11 17:00Z
Market observation
7% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMDW (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMDW (WFO LOT); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00014819
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-12, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 12, 2026, is less than 84° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.