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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 15, 2026: PBE moves “67° or above” down to 35% from 50%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 14. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 14 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · Wikimedia Commons

50%35%

67° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−15 pts
Market at capture22%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 15, 2026?

67° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE35%0 pts since publication
Kalshi12%+6 pts since publication
Gap+23

RESEARCH PBE Oct 14 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “67° or above” from 50% to 35% (−15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 14 11:00Z → Oct 14 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 22%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 14 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 14 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 14 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 14 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “67° or above” from 50% to 35%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 64°F to 65°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 66°F to 65°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time24h18h—
GFS MOS forecast high64°F65°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high66°F65°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 14 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“67° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 14 14:00ZOct 14 15:30ZOct 14 17:00Z50%35%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 50% · Oct 14 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 35% · Oct 14 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 14 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 14 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.050
Oct 14 14:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 14 14:02ZKalshi mid6
Oct 14 14:04ZKalshi mid7
Oct 14 14:06ZKalshi mid24
Oct 14 14:08ZKalshi mid25
Oct 14 14:10ZKalshi mid25
Oct 14 14:12ZKalshi mid28
Oct 14 14:14ZKalshi mid28
Oct 14 14:16ZKalshi mid28
Oct 14 14:28ZKalshi mid32
Oct 14 14:34ZKalshi mid31
Oct 14 14:36ZKalshi mid31
Oct 14 14:48ZKalshi mid33
Oct 14 14:50ZKalshi mid35
Oct 14 14:52ZKalshi mid35
Oct 14 14:58ZKalshi mid31
Oct 14 15:00ZKalshi mid32
Oct 14 15:18ZKalshi mid32
Oct 14 15:20ZKalshi mid26
Oct 14 15:22ZKalshi mid25
Oct 14 15:26ZKalshi mid24
Oct 14 15:30ZKalshi mid24
Oct 14 15:34ZKalshi mid25
Oct 14 15:56ZKalshi mid24
Oct 14 16:00ZKalshi mid24
Oct 14 16:08ZKalshi mid23
Oct 14 16:22ZKalshi mid23
Oct 14 16:34ZKalshi mid22
Oct 14 16:42ZKalshi mid22
Oct 14 16:54ZKalshi mid22
Oct 14 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.035
Oct 14 17:00ZKalshi mid22

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 22%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 14 14:00ZOct 14 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 14 11:00ZOct 14 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-14T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-14T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-14T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-14T12Z
PBE50%35%
Market at capture6%22%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

67° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
85e6ee3d-1ead-4c4d-ba7e-2edba2e8666f
Compared with
c50bd777-6be1-43ef-96d8-9f3ea9d8c82e
Captured
Oct 14 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 14 17:00Z
Market observation
22% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMDW (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMDW (WFO LOT); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00014819
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-15, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 15, 2026, is greater than 66° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.