WEATHER · RESOLUTION REPORT

Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 6, 2026: 74° to 75° — it happened. How PBE scored.

74° to 75°: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 21% against a 44% market. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.

Published October 7, 2026 at 12:09 UTCModel data as of Oct 6 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: J. Crocker · Attribution · Wikimedia Commons

ResultYES74° to 75°

PBE at final21%pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0

Market at final44%captured with the snapshot

Brier (PBE)0.133market 0.107

Resolved Oct 7 12:05Z · verified against NWS CLI CLIMDW product 202610070702-KLOT-CDUS43-CLIMDW

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 6, 2026?

74° to 75° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday92%

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KMDW: high so far 73.9°F · latest 60.8°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 6 22:17Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

Result: 74° to 75°: YES; official check 74 degF agrees with the venue.
PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 21%; market at that moment 44%.
Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.133, market 0.107 (n=6).
Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.

What happened

Highest temperature in Chicago on Oct 6, 2026 resolved with 74° to 75°: YES. The venue settled at Oct 7 12:05Z (expiration value 74.00); PropBetEdge's independent check — NWS CLI CLIMDW product 202610070702-KLOT-CDUS43-CLIMDW — recorded 74 degF, which agrees with the settlement (source).

What PBE said before it happened

The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.

CHECKPOINTSDesignated forecasts and the market at the same momentPBE % (market % captured with that snapshot)

Outcome	Result	First published	T−24 h	Final pre-resolution
70° to 71°	NO	29%	—	22% (mkt 9%)
69° or below	NO	21%	—	12% (mkt 2%)
72° to 73°	NO	27%	—	31% (mkt 46%)
74° to 75°	YES	14%	—	21% (mkt 44%)
76° to 77°	NO	6%	—	10% (mkt 3%)
78° or above	NO	3% (mkt 6%)	—	5%

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 05:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; designations designation/1

DISTRIBUTIONFinal pre-resolution distribution vs the market

PBE (final)Market at that snapshot

70° to 71°

22%

69° or below

12%

72° to 73°

31%

46%

74° to 75° ✓

21%

44%

76° to 77°

10%

78° or above

no two-sided quote

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 05:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

FORECAST PATH“74° to 75°” until resolutionEvery public snapshot; designated snapshots ringed

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring)

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 6 05:01ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

How it scored

Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 6 contracts was 0.133 against 0.107 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.

SCOREPBE vs market on the designated snapshotsMean across this event’s contracts

Checkpoint	Method	PBE	Market	n (PBE)	n (market)
First published	Brier	0.158	0.004	6	1
First published	Log loss	0.492	0.062	6	1
Final pre-resolution	Brier	0.133	0.107	6	5
Final pre-resolution	Log loss	0.411	0.315	6	5

Units: Brier score / log loss (lower is better)As of Oct 7 12:05ZSource: pred_scores

This event adds 6 resolved contracts to the model's live record (114 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Outcome	Model	Snapshot	Compared with	Captured	Data cutoff	Market
70° to 71°	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	989700b2-6133-4221-b3ab-c7b2c355ea79	45213806-9850-4c64-9dc6-24fca09a519b	Oct 6 05:01Z	Oct 6 05:00Z	9%
69° or below	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	ec87d2b7-0a7c-4e79-b8ff-5adfe05acb57	f04017c6-c3c3-4f68-9121-4ee626f573d0	Oct 6 05:01Z	Oct 6 05:00Z	2%
72° to 73°	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	36812543-e15a-49d2-84e4-2b08e9dd3e60	889fdb4f-941d-4069-910e-40d87ef53564	Oct 6 05:01Z	Oct 6 05:00Z	46%
74° to 75°	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	d43c5df1-1392-447c-a41c-13552c71c20c	01c9704e-ce8f-41fc-844d-79a1381868fa	Oct 6 05:01Z	Oct 6 05:00Z	44%
76° to 77°	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	20ab2a36-fbd4-44f0-a579-8a23fcf29d67	09558715-87b3-4b68-91ec-7ff2fb3d22c3	Oct 6 05:01Z	Oct 6 05:00Z	3%
78° or above	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	7d8b426e-c83e-4a2e-814f-6df7683d18e4	b7e09744-29fd-4755-b69e-ed526af103ab	Oct 6 05:01Z	Oct 6 05:00Z	—

Source families: NWS CLI CLIMDW product 202610070702-KLOT-CDUS43-CLIMDW. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIMDW (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIMDW (WFO LOT); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00014819
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-06, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-6)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 6, 2026, is between 74-75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.