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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 1, 2026: PBE moves “66° or above” down to 49% from 64%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 31. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 31 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

64%49%

66° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−15 pts
Market at capture25%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 1, 2026?

66° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE49%0 pts since publication
Kalshi11%−17 pts since publication
Gap+38

RESEARCH PBE Oct 31 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “66° or above” from 64% to 49% (−15 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 31 11:00Z → Oct 31 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 28% to 25%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 31 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 31 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 31 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 31 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “66° or above” from 64% to 49%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 63°F to 64°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 66°F to 65°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time25h19h—
GFS MOS forecast high63°F64°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high66°F65°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 31 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“66° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 31 14:02ZOct 31 15:31ZOct 31 17:00Z64%49%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 64% · Oct 31 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 49% · Oct 31 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 31 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 31 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.064
Oct 31 14:02ZKalshi mid28
Oct 31 14:04ZKalshi mid27
Oct 31 14:06ZKalshi mid26
Oct 31 14:12ZKalshi mid25
Oct 31 14:18ZKalshi mid25
Oct 31 14:28ZKalshi mid26
Oct 31 14:36ZKalshi mid26
Oct 31 14:44ZKalshi mid25
Oct 31 15:00ZKalshi mid26
Oct 31 15:08ZKalshi mid26
Oct 31 15:52ZKalshi mid25
Oct 31 16:00ZKalshi mid26
Oct 31 16:46ZKalshi mid25
Oct 31 16:56ZKalshi mid25
Oct 31 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.049
Oct 31 17:00ZKalshi mid25

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 28% to 25%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 31 14:02ZOct 31 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 31 11:00ZOct 31 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-31T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-31T12Z
PBE64%49%
Market at capture28%25%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

66° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
65b5cdc3-30b1-478f-a2dc-2911f7d8c4bc
Compared with
4394bc2f-6a63-4c6e-bf41-e920f4c785d9
Captured
Oct 31 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 31 17:00Z
Market observation
25% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-01, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Nov 1, 2026, is greater than 65° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.