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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 10, 2026: PBE moves “66° or below” up to 36% from 24%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Nov 10. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 10 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

24%36%

66° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move+12 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 10, 2026?

66° or below · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · live intraday30%−6 pts since publication
Kalshi2%−1 pts since publication
Gap+28

At KDEN: high so far 46.4°F · latest 42.8°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Nov 10 08:20Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “66° or below” from 24% to 36% (+12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 9 23:00Z → Nov 10 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 3% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 9 23:00Z (data cutoff Nov 9 23:00Z) and the one at Nov 10 05:00Z (cutoff Nov 10 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “66° or below” from 24% to 36%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 70°F to 71°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 68°F to 67°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time13h7h—
GFS MOS forecast high70°F71°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high68°F67°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 10 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“66° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 9 15:02ZNov 9 22:01ZNov 10 05:00Z24%36%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 9 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 17% · Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 24% · Nov 9 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 10 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 10 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 10 00:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 10 01:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 10 02:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 10 03:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 10 04:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 10 04:04ZKalshi mid2
Nov 10 04:12ZKalshi mid2
Nov 10 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 10 05:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 9 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Nov 9 15:02ZKalshi mid11
Nov 9 15:04ZKalshi mid10
Nov 9 15:16ZKalshi mid6
Nov 9 15:18ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 15:20ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 15:22ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 16:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.017
Nov 9 17:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 17:32ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 18:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 18:36ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 19:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 19:02ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 20:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 20:14ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 21:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 22:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 9 22:08ZKalshi mid3
Nov 9 22:14ZKalshi mid3
Nov 9 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.024
Nov 9 23:00ZKalshi mid3
Nov 9 23:22ZKalshi mid3

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 3% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 9 23:00ZNov 10 05:00Z
Data cutoffNov 9 23:00ZNov 10 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-09T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-09T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-10T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-10T00Z
PBE24%36%
Market at capture3%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

66° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
59340fc8-21df-42b7-9f37-aa76fe1d3b68
Compared with
43c51c5e-60d0-4b5b-9bee-b990dd775980
Captured
Nov 10 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 10 05:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-10, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Nov 10, 2026, is less than 67° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.