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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 3, 2026: PBE moves “54° or below” up to 36% from 17%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 2. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 2 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

17%36%

54° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+19 pts
Market at capture24%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 3, 2026?

54° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE36%0 pts since publication
Kalshi32%+13 pts since publication
Gap+4

RESEARCH PBE Nov 2 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “54° or below” from 17% to 36% (+19 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 2 17:00Z → Nov 2 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 19% to 24%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 2 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 2 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 2 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 2 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “54° or below” from 17% to 36%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 55°F to 54°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 57°F to 55°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time19h13h—
GFS MOS forecast high55°F54°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high57°F55°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 2 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“54° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 2 15:02ZNov 2 19:01ZNov 2 23:00Z17%36%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 17% · Nov 2 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 17% · Nov 2 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 2 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 2 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 2 15:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.017
Nov 2 15:02ZKalshi mid33
Nov 2 15:04ZKalshi mid32
Nov 2 15:06ZKalshi mid31
Nov 2 15:08ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:10ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:12ZKalshi mid28
Nov 2 15:14ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 15:16ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 15:20ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 15:22ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 15:30ZKalshi mid27
Nov 2 15:58ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 16:00ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 16:06ZKalshi mid26
Nov 2 16:16ZKalshi mid25
Nov 2 16:18ZKalshi mid25
Nov 2 16:36ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 16:38ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 16:40ZKalshi mid19
Nov 2 16:52ZKalshi mid19
Nov 2 16:54ZKalshi mid19
Nov 2 16:56ZKalshi mid19
Nov 2 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.017
Nov 2 17:00ZKalshi mid19
Nov 2 17:08ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 17:16ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 17:38ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 17:42ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 17:46ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 17:52ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 18:00ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 18:02ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 18:04ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 18:16ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 18:18ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 19:00ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 19:02ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 19:04ZKalshi mid19
Nov 2 19:16ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 19:18ZKalshi mid20
Nov 2 19:26ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 19:34ZKalshi mid19
Nov 2 19:38ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 19:42ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 19:48ZKalshi mid21
Nov 2 19:50ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 19:52ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 20:00ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 20:02ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 20:06ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 20:12ZKalshi mid24
Nov 2 20:30ZKalshi mid24
Nov 2 20:34ZKalshi mid24
Nov 2 20:46ZKalshi mid25
Nov 2 20:48ZKalshi mid24
Nov 2 21:00ZKalshi mid24
Nov 2 21:16ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 21:36ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 21:48ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 21:52ZKalshi mid24
Nov 2 22:00ZKalshi mid24
Nov 2 22:16ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 22:38ZKalshi mid23
Nov 2 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 2 23:00ZKalshi mid24

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 19% to 24%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 2 17:00ZNov 2 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 2 17:00ZNov 2 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-02T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-02T18Z
PBE17%36%
Market at capture19%24%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

54° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
4bf5b2dc-f49e-4d05-9d31-cb728f48986b
Compared with
b20b9adc-8979-4acb-a5ae-f10d571587fb
Captured
Nov 2 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 2 23:00Z
Market observation
24% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-03, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Nov 3, 2026, is less than 55° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.