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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 6, 2026: PBE moves “53° or below” up to 36% from 12%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 17:00 UTC and 23:00 UTC on Nov 5. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Nov 5 23:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

12%36%

53° or below · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 17:00 UTC → 23:00 UTC

Move+24 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed1primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Nov 6, 2026?

53° or below · PRE-WINDOW

PBE36%0 pts since publication
Kalshi2%0 pts since publication
Gap+34

RESEARCH PBE Nov 5 23:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “53° or below” from 12% to 36% (+24 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Nov 5 17:00Z → Nov 5 23:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Nov 5 17:00Z (data cutoff Nov 5 17:00Z) and the one at Nov 5 23:00Z (cutoff Nov 5 23:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “53° or below” from 12% to 36%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend of Models forecast high from 57°F to 54°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time19h13h—
National Blend of Models forecast high57°F54°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Nov 5 23:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“53° or below”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Nov 5 15:00ZNov 5 19:00ZNov 5 23:00Z12%36%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 17% · Nov 5 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 12% · Nov 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 36% · Nov 5 23:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Nov 5 23:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Nov 5 15:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.017
Nov 5 15:02ZKalshi mid4
Nov 5 15:06ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 15:16ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 16:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 5 16:04ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 16:10ZKalshi mid3
Nov 5 16:12ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.012
Nov 5 17:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 17:04ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 17:50ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 17:56ZKalshi mid4
Nov 5 18:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 5 18:02ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 18:14ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 18:16ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 18:22ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 18:50ZKalshi mid3
Nov 5 19:00ZKalshi mid4
Nov 5 19:02ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 19:20ZKalshi mid4
Nov 5 19:26ZKalshi mid3
Nov 5 19:40ZKalshi mid3
Nov 5 19:42ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 19:52ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 19:58ZKalshi mid6
Nov 5 20:00ZKalshi mid6
Nov 5 20:04ZKalshi mid3
Nov 5 20:08ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 20:24ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 20:30ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 20:32ZKalshi mid4
Nov 5 20:36ZKalshi mid6
Nov 5 20:40ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 21:00ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 21:04ZKalshi mid5
Nov 5 21:06ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 21:14ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 21:24ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 22:00ZKalshi mid2
Nov 5 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.036
Nov 5 23:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedNov 5 17:00ZNov 5 23:00Z
Data cutoffNov 5 17:00ZNov 5 23:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-05T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-05T12ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-11-05T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-11-05T18Z
PBE12%36%
Market at capture2%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

53° or below
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
71fc14fd-9269-4be2-bce3-8243538f6a64
Compared with
66bf0826-26ab-4832-83a4-d3b04712b186
Captured
Nov 5 23:00Z
Data cutoff
Nov 5 23:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-11-06, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Nov 6, 2026, is less than 54° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.