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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 13, 2026: PBE moves “70° or above” down to 20% from 32%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 12. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 12 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

32%20%

70° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move−12 pts
Market at capture3%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 13, 2026?

70° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE20%0 pts since publication
Kalshi4%+1 pts since publication
Gap+16

RESEARCH PBE Oct 12 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “70° or above” from 32% to 20% (−12 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 12 11:00Z → Oct 12 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 12 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 12 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 12 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 12 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “70° or above” from 32% to 20%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 6°F to 4°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 68°F to 66°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 68°F to 67°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time25h19h—
National Blend spread6°F4°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high68°F66°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high68°F67°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 12 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“70° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 12 14:00ZOct 12 15:30ZOct 12 17:00Z32%20%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 32% · Oct 12 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 20% · Oct 12 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 12 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 12 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.032
Oct 12 14:02ZKalshi mid9
Oct 12 14:06ZKalshi mid6
Oct 12 14:08ZKalshi mid6
Oct 12 14:14ZKalshi mid5
Oct 12 14:20ZKalshi mid6
Oct 12 14:26ZKalshi mid7
Oct 12 14:40ZKalshi mid6
Oct 12 14:44ZKalshi mid6
Oct 12 14:46ZKalshi mid4
Oct 12 14:48ZKalshi mid3
Oct 12 15:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 12 15:40ZKalshi mid4
Oct 12 16:01ZKalshi mid3
Oct 12 16:10ZKalshi mid3
Oct 12 16:36ZKalshi mid3
Oct 12 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.020
Oct 12 17:00ZKalshi mid3

A comparable market observation was not captured with both snapshots, so no market move is stated.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 12 14:00ZOct 12 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 12 11:00ZOct 12 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-12T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-12T12Z
PBE32%20%
Market at capture—3%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

70° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
bec32fa7-9b68-45e7-8034-2d9d7f3e76fb
Compared with
a870c679-b5ed-4eb0-9bb0-0da27b1819af
Captured
Oct 12 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 12 17:00Z
Market observation
3% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-13, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Oct 13, 2026, is greater than 69° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.