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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 16, 2026: PBE moves “61° to 62°” up to 21% from 8%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:02 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 15. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 15 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

8%21%

61° to 62° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:02 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+13 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 16, 2026?

61° to 62° · PRE-WINDOW

PBE8%−13 pts since publication
Kalshi2%−5 pts since publication
Gap+6

RESEARCH PBE Oct 15 23:01Z · market

  1. UPDATE · Oct 15 23:01Z PBE 8% pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · data cutoff Oct 15 23:00Z
Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “61° to 62°” from 8% to 21% (+13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 15 11:00Z → Oct 15 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 7% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 15 14:02Z (data cutoff Oct 15 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 15 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 15 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “61° to 62°” from 8% to 21%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 4°F to 3°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 60°F to 57°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 57°F to 59°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time25h19h—
National Blend spread4°F3°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high60°F57°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high57°F59°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 15 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“61° to 62°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 15 14:02ZOct 15 15:31ZOct 15 17:00Z8%21%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 8% · Oct 15 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 21% · Oct 15 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 15 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 15 14:02ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.08
Oct 15 14:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 15 14:04ZKalshi mid5
Oct 15 14:06ZKalshi mid4
Oct 15 14:08ZKalshi mid4
Oct 15 14:12ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 14:14ZKalshi mid3
Oct 15 14:18ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 15:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 16:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 15 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.021
Oct 15 17:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 7% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 15 14:02ZOct 15 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 15 11:00ZOct 15 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-15T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-15T12Z
PBE8%21%
Market at capture7%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

61° to 62°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
833cbc90-a017-4acc-97e7-7e2e0615bccf
Compared with
569fd143-ddb2-49c4-b1b0-81d4db16a27f
Captured
Oct 15 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 15 17:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-16, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Oct 16, 2026, is between 61-62° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.