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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 18, 2026: PBE moves “78° or above” up to 49% from 11%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 14:00 UTC and 17:00 UTC on Oct 17. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 17 17:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

11%49%

78° or above · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 14:00 UTC → 17:00 UTC

Move+38 pts
Market at capture12%
Inputs changed3primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 18, 2026?

78° or above · PRE-WINDOW

PBE49%0 pts since publication
Kalshi4%−2 pts since publication
Gap+45

RESEARCH PBE Oct 17 17:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “78° or above” from 11% to 49% (+38 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 17 11:00Z → Oct 17 17:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: National Blend spread, GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 12%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 17 14:00Z (data cutoff Oct 17 11:00Z) and the one at Oct 17 17:00Z (cutoff Oct 17 17:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “78° or above” from 11% to 49%. The model inputs that changed: National Blend spread from 2°F to 1°F; GFS MOS forecast high from 78°F to 75°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 74°F to 77°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time25h19h—
National Blend spread2°F1°Fyes
GFS MOS forecast high78°F75°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high74°F77°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 17 17:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“78° or above”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 17 14:00ZOct 17 15:30ZOct 17 17:00Z11%49%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 11% · Oct 17 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 49% · Oct 17 17:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 17 17:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 17 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.011
Oct 17 14:00ZKalshi mid6
Oct 17 14:02ZKalshi mid4
Oct 17 14:18ZKalshi mid4
Oct 17 14:46ZKalshi mid6
Oct 17 14:48ZKalshi mid7
Oct 17 15:00ZKalshi mid7
Oct 17 15:02ZKalshi mid7
Oct 17 15:08ZKalshi mid7
Oct 17 15:16ZKalshi mid10
Oct 17 15:18ZKalshi mid11
Oct 17 15:46ZKalshi mid14
Oct 17 15:48ZKalshi mid16
Oct 17 15:50ZKalshi mid16
Oct 17 16:00ZKalshi mid16
Oct 17 16:04ZKalshi mid16
Oct 17 16:14ZKalshi mid11
Oct 17 16:20ZKalshi mid12
Oct 17 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.049
Oct 17 17:00ZKalshi mid12

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 6% to 12%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 17 14:00ZOct 17 17:00Z
Data cutoffOct 17 11:00ZOct 17 17:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-17T06Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-17T06ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-17T12Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-17T12Z
PBE11%49%
Market at capture6%12%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

78° or above
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
4426d88a-ebf9-433c-a4e4-3d76857ee2e9
Compared with
e7aa768e-9f5d-4028-b277-d585c6665783
Captured
Oct 17 17:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 17 17:00Z
Market observation
12% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-18, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Oct 18, 2026, is greater than 77° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.