WEATHER · RESOLUTION REPORT

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 21, 2026: 74° to 75° — it happened. How PBE scored.

74° to 75°: YES. PBE's final pre-resolution forecast was 19% against a 23% market. The designated forecasts, the market at the same moments, and the scores — fixed before the outcome.

Published October 22, 2026 at 13:18 UTCModel data as of Oct 21 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

ResultYES74° to 75°

PBE at final19%pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0

Market at final23%captured with the snapshot

Brier (PBE)0.140market 0.164

Resolved Oct 22 13:04Z · verified against NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202610220731-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN

LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 21, 2026?

74° to 75° · RESOLVED

PBE · live intraday20%

KalshiNo two-sided quote

GapNo comparable quote

At KDEN: high so far 75.2°F · latest 62.6°F () · STALE

RESEARCH PBE Oct 21 22:20Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

Result: 74° to 75°: YES; official check 75 degF agrees with the venue.
PBE at the final pre-resolution snapshot: 19%; market at that moment 23%.
Mean Brier at the final checkpoint: PBE 0.140, market 0.164 (n=6).
Scoring snapshots were fixed by rule (designation/1) before the outcome existed.

What happened

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 21, 2026 resolved with 74° to 75°: YES. The venue settled at Oct 22 13:04Z (expiration value 75.00); PropBetEdge's independent check — NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202610220731-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN — recorded 75 degF, which agrees with the settlement (source).

What PBE said before it happened

The snapshots that count were fixed by rule before the outcome: the first published forecast, the forecast in force 24 hours before the reference time (only if one existed), and the last forecast before it. Each is shown with the Kalshi mid captured at the same moment.

CHECKPOINTSDesignated forecasts and the market at the same momentPBE % (market % captured with that snapshot)

Outcome	Result	First published	T−24 h	Final pre-resolution
74° to 75°	YES	19%	—	19% (mkt 23%)
73° or below	NO	17%	—	17% (mkt 3%)
76° to 77°	NO	32%	—	32% (mkt 59%)
78° to 79°	NO	21%	—	21% (mkt 21%)
80° to 81°	NO	8%	—	8% (mkt 2%)
82° or above	NO	4%	—	4% (mkt 2%)

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 21 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; designations designation/1

DISTRIBUTIONFinal pre-resolution distribution vs the market

PBE (final)Market at that snapshot

74° to 75° ✓

19%

23%

73° or below

17%

76° to 77°

32%

59%

78° to 79°

21%

80° to 81°

82° or above

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 21 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

FORECAST PATH“74° to 75°” until resolutionEvery public snapshot; designated snapshots ringed

Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE snapshot (ringed = designated for scoring)

Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 21 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi

How it scored

Scores compare PBE and the market on the same designated snapshot — a lower Brier score or log loss is better. At the final pre-resolution checkpoint PBE's mean Brier score across 6 contracts was 0.140 against 0.164 for the market. One event is not evidence of skill in either direction.

SCOREPBE vs market on the designated snapshotsMean across this event’s contracts

Checkpoint	Method	PBE	Market	n (PBE)	n (market)
First published	Brier	0.140	—	6	0
First published	Log loss	0.432	—	6	0
Final pre-resolution	Brier	0.140	0.164	6	6
Final pre-resolution	Log loss	0.432	0.443	6	6

Units: Brier score / log loss (lower is better)As of Oct 22 13:04ZSource: pred_scores

This event adds 6 resolved contracts to the model's live record (750 resolved in total). Live calibration is published once 30 have resolved.

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

Outcome	Model	Snapshot	Compared with	Captured	Data cutoff	Market
74° to 75°	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	4a492ec0-c7c7-4fa9-893d-f1a45344a3a5	ac581182-93d1-4d52-acdd-883c49775990	Oct 21 05:00Z	Oct 21 05:00Z	23%
73° or below	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	e274242c-9429-4d39-953c-a4b0caabb2f4	1018332c-af41-45ce-bd94-212c7f3c57c9	Oct 21 05:00Z	Oct 21 05:00Z	3%
76° to 77°	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	120a94e9-be75-4d4d-a267-10df53a5c450	f5d6e929-3721-4ced-8d8d-f3dd4f12aa3a	Oct 21 05:00Z	Oct 21 05:00Z	59%
78° to 79°	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	f29605d5-0bd2-4d37-b437-c43649d918f1	ef6c7223-953e-41d2-a345-1ce6f069d0dc	Oct 21 05:00Z	Oct 21 05:00Z	21%
80° to 81°	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	7bf54cdd-b479-4598-81d1-6b51a1dfb34f	b796c778-4189-48b1-85a4-e09886addf29	Oct 21 05:00Z	Oct 21 05:00Z	2%
82° or above	pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH	df5a6dee-6575-40fe-be1e-da045657561d	446db559-53fd-46ff-8d23-032f16fa1f75	Oct 21 05:00Z	Oct 21 05:00Z	2%

Source families: NWS CLI CLIDEN product 202610220731-KBOU-CDUS45-CLIDEN. Market = Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot.

RESOLUTION RULE

Resolves on: The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check: NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement: Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-21, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding: Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions: Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price

If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Oct 21, 2026, is between 74-75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

MODEL LIMITATIONS

Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.