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WEATHER · FORECAST CHANGE

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 22, 2026: PBE moves “79° to 80°” down to 8% from 21%

New forecast guidance reached the model between 23:00 UTC and 05:00 UTC on Oct 22. Same model version, later data cutoff: here is exactly which inputs changed.

Published Model data as of Oct 22 05:00ZBy the PropBetEdge Predictions Desk1 min read

Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

21%8%

79° to 80° · pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · 23:00 UTC → 05:00 UTC

Move−13 pts
Market at capture2%
Inputs changed2primary
LIVE UPDATE · not part of the original story

Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 22, 2026?

79° to 80° · WINDOW OPEN · OBSERVING

PBE · pre-window, frozen Oct 22 05:00Z8%0 pts since publication
Kalshi2%0 pts since publication
Gap+6

At KDEN: high so far 62.6°F · latest 60.8°F () · CURRENT

RESEARCH PBE Oct 22 05:00Z · market

Open the live forecast →

Quick read

  • pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 moved “79° to 80°” from 21% to 8% (−13 pts).
  • Later data cutoff: Oct 21 23:00Z → Oct 22 05:00Z; same model version, so the move reflects inputs, not a model change.
  • Primary inputs changed: GFS MOS forecast high, National Blend of Models forecast high.
  • The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

What changed in the inputs

Between the snapshot captured at Oct 21 23:00Z (data cutoff Oct 21 23:00Z) and the one at Oct 22 05:00Z (cutoff Oct 22 05:00Z), the same model version — pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 — moved “79° to 80°” from 21% to 8%. The model inputs that changed: GFS MOS forecast high from 71°F to 73°F; National Blend of Models forecast high from 77°F to 75°F.

EVIDENCEStored model inputs, before and afterFrom the immutable feature snapshots attached to each forecast
InputBeforeAfterPrimary
Guidance lead time13h7h—
GFS MOS forecast high71°F73°Fyes
National Blend of Models forecast high77°F75°Fyes
Units: as labeledAs of Oct 22 05:00ZSource: PBE feature snapshots

This page reports which stored inputs differ between two immutable forecasts. It does not claim why the underlying weather guidance changed.

The forecast path

PROBABILITY HISTORY“79° to 80°”: pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots vs the marketSame model version only; the dashed line is the stored Kalshi mid
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 21 14:00ZOct 21 21:30ZOct 22 05:00Z21%8%PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 13% · Oct 21 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 21% · Oct 21 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 21% · Oct 21 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots 8% · Oct 22 05:00Z
Kalshi mid (stored observations)PBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 snapshots
Units: % probabilityAs of Oct 22 05:00ZSource: PBE forecast archive; Kalshi
Data table
Time (UTC)SourceValue %
Oct 21 14:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.013
Oct 21 14:02ZKalshi mid5
Oct 21 14:04ZKalshi mid5
Oct 21 14:14ZKalshi mid5
Oct 21 14:18ZKalshi mid4
Oct 21 14:22ZKalshi mid4
Oct 21 14:58ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 15:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 15:30ZKalshi mid4
Oct 21 15:36ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 15:50ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 16:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 17:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.021
Oct 21 17:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 18:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 19:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 19:48ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 20:00ZKalshi mid3
Oct 21 20:08ZKalshi mid2
Oct 21 20:19ZKalshi mid2
Oct 21 21:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 21 22:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 21 23:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.021
Oct 21 23:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 22 00:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 22 01:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 22 02:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 22 03:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 22 04:00ZKalshi mid2
Oct 22 05:00ZPBE pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.08
Oct 22 05:00ZKalshi mid2

The Kalshi mid captured with each snapshot went from 2% to 2%.

The two snapshots

EarlierLater
CapturedOct 21 23:00ZOct 22 05:00Z
Data cutoffOct 21 23:00ZOct 22 05:00Z
Guidance runsNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-21T18Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-21T18ZNWS GFS MOS 2026-10-22T00Z, NWS National Blend of Models 2026-10-22T00Z
PBE21%8%
Market at capture2%2%

Evidence & method

What this story is based on. Every value above was read from these immutable records.

79° to 80°
Model
pbe-weather-maxtemp@1.1.0 · RESEARCH
Snapshot
85c028fa-d8ca-45ce-907e-7109c343caae
Compared with
4eeff510-1a34-4167-a3ed-318ad19ea933
Captured
Oct 22 05:00Z
Data cutoff
Oct 22 05:00Z
Market observation
2% · captured with the snapshot
Source families
NOAA/NWS via Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive · NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS · NOAA/NWS api.weather.gov
RESOLUTION RULE
Resolves on
The Weather Company (weather.com/kalshi) — The Weather Company daily maximum temperature for CLIDEN (weather.com/kalshi)
Independent check
NWS Daily Climate Report CLIDEN (WFO BOU); NOAA RCC-ACIS USW00003017
Measurement
Maximum temperature for the climate day 2026-10-22, 00:00-24:00 local standard time (UTC-7)
Rounding
Whole degrees Fahrenheit as reported; preliminary values may differ by rounding/conversion
Exceptions
Preliminary data may be revised; the exchange may hold expiration until a non-erroneous revision, else last fair price
If the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Oct 22, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
MODEL LIMITATIONS
  • Pre-window only; no current-conditions input
  • Guidance can run cold/hot in unusual regimes (see LA diagnostic, 2026-10-04)

Weather · daily high — inputs: National Blend of Models day max (GFS MOS fallback) + station empirical guidance-error tables. This model on the research board →

Market prices are a benchmark only and never enter a PropBetEdge model. Research-stage probabilities; not advice.